NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Bears Vs. Texans Sunday Night Football

NFL same game parlays and player props are available at sportsbooks within the Sunday Night Football odds catalog. This week, our staff at TheLines.com is zeroing in on smarter ideas for NFL SGP picks for the Bears vs. Texans game on Sunday Night Football in Houston.

Sportsbook software has become increasingly sophisticated in adjusting odds for correlated outcomes in SGPs. However, sportsbook SGP machines often spit out longshot prices better than fair odds for uncorrelated parlays that may still fit a player’s role. Remember to manage your bankroll.

BETFINDER TOOL: SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAYER PROPS

To search Sunday Night Football player props, type in the player’s name below. For additional odds, click the “Show all bets” button. Click on the odds anywhere in the table to bet now.

2024 strategy for nfl sgp picks

When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps:

SGP machines tend to offer lower payouts than the fair odds on correlated same game parlays.

One example of an uncorrelated SGP that apps may have trouble pricing is running back with high red zone usage for potential touchdowns but low rushing volume, overall, for high-end yardage totals.

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SMARTER SGP PICKS: BEARS AT TEXANS SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

I will be referencing DraftKings Sportsbook odds for this first SGP, but as mentioned above, it’s best practice to shop for the best odds. If you only have one or two sportsbooks, now is the time to open more and lock in additional NFL promo codes.

Same Game Parlay Idea No. 1 at +1400

• Stefon Diggs under 53.5 Receiving Yards
• Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown
• Stefon Diggs OVER 4.5 receptions

Diggs secured all of his six targets for a mere 33 yards and two scores in Week 1. The target share is there for Diggs, but unlike his time in Buffalo, Diggs is in a crowded receiving room in Houston. It’s just one game, but the team seems to be relying on Nico Collins and Tank Dell for their big play-making ability.

Collins and Dell each had an ADOT higher than Diggs last year, and through one week, that doesn’t seem to have changed. Diggs’ ADOT sits at a measly 1.7 yards, whereas Collins and Dell sit at 16.3 and 16.6, respectively. Taking deep shots with the former Bills receiver is simply not in the cards, with his ADOT sitting in the bottom 10 in the entire NFL.

Should Diggs go under his yardage prop, CJ Stroud will have to shower the veteran receiver with targets in order to keep him happy. There were six receivers in Week 1 that tallied three redzone targets, one of which was Diggs. He caught all three of his redzone targets last Sunday, including two for touchdowns.

From a matchup perspective, targeting Diggs in the redzone makes a ton of sense as well. Diggs lined up in the slot for 63% of the team’s pass plays in Week 1, so he avoids Chicago’s top cornerback Jaylon Johnson who lurks on the outside.

NFL SGP picks Idea No. 2 at +900 Parlay Odds

• DJ Moore 80+ receiving yards
• Caleb Williams under 219.5 passing yards

With Rome Odunze (knee) and Keenan Allen (heel) dealing with injuries, I foresee a big game from DJ Moore. He’ll face a tough test with Derek Stingley Jr., but with Odunze or Allen possibly out of the lineup, expect OC Shane Waldron to move him around the field often to free him up.

Furthermore, I’m expecting a better game from Williams this week. To what extent, I’m not sure, and neither are the sportsbooks. Last week his number was set at 246.5 at one prominent sportsbook, now they’ve moved it to 219.5. After his abysmal performance in Week 1 it seems the books are guessing on what his number should be. It makes sense to expect D’Andre Swift to get more than 10 carries this week. Chicago will want to use the ground attack more to keep Stroud and the Houston offense off the field. If they accomplish this, the negative game script that the point spread suggests could be thrown out the window, giving us value on Caleb’s under passing yards.

If you were to put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get about $40.48 on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software is offering more than double that. The software is not looking at matchup research.

Best of luck with your own NFL SGP picks for Sunday night!

HOW TO FIND SNF PROMOS FOR SAME GAME PARLAYS

Most SGP promos require you to opt-in to receive the SGP promo benefits. We are seeing some bonus bets back from SGP offers for users at FanDuel and profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets back if one leg loses.

Bears vs. Texans odds