NFL Playoffs SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Texans At Chiefs
Same-game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL playoffs odds. For playoff games during the 2024-25 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll look for SGP angles with some negative correlation to uncover longshots with a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea is that while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.
Here, we’ll examine SGP options for the Texans and Chiefs on Saturday in the late afternoon game.
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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Texans At Chiefs
Texans D Stepping Up
After a year of struggle, Houston’s offense has been the subject of much consternation, but the defense has experienced no such backslide. By contrast, they have been elite for much of the season, especially against the pass. They rank second in Success Rate on that end and third in DVOA.
Regarding raw stats, only five teams allowed fewer than Houston’s 201.6 YPG.
They had another great game last week against the Chargers. They allowed 4.8 YPP and just six points before garbage time.
Patrick Mahomes brings a unique challenge to the table. He has taken a few uncharacteristic sacks this year, but the expectation is that he’ll bring his usual elite level of January play. Houston will have to play another A+ game to limit him.
Mahomes Taking What Defense Gives Him
Early in his career, Mahomes was known for big plays. But, as the league adjusted and brought more two-high looks, he and Andy Reid have slowly evolved the offense.
These days, Mahomes is more of a short-throw artist. Only two qualified QBs had a lower average depth of target (aDOT) than Mahomes this year. Teams are content to let the Chiefs work in short areas, relying on tackling and hoping a drop, penalty, or sack will stall the drive at some point.
Expect more of the same here against the elite Texans pass D. The corners on this team, especially Derek Stingley Jr., are extremely tough to beat deep.
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Predictions For NFL SGP Picks
The Chiefs won’t be hunting many home-run shots in a game with freezing weather against a top-tier pass defense.
Thus, we might see another game — like the one I correctly identified last week with Jordan Love — in which a quarterback has many attempts/completions but a pedestrian yardage total. Mahomes’ reputation still carries considerable weight as he sports a reasonably high number, considering the market expects only around 40 points here.
In fact, of all the QBs, Mahomes might be the one I’m most confident can stay under his passing total while still having a fine game with efficiency, scrambling, and timely playmaking. Despite a strong showing last time out against the Texans, he still only had 260 yards.
Regarding SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough the importance of shopping around. Our research for this season’s strategy sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps.
These NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+470).
- P. Mahomes Over 24.5 passing completions (-115)
- P. Mahomes Under 249.5 passing yards (-110)
If you put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get a $25.69 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software offers almost double that. The software does not look at matchup research.
Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for the Chiefs vs. Texans.
Chiefs Vs. Texans Odds
While this article focuses on same-game parlay picks and odds for Texans at Chiefs, find the best odds below for the main markets, like spread and total. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL divisional odds.
Texans At Chiefs NFL Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kansas City Chiefs | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Texans at Chiefs Matchup
| STATS |
Texans
HOU
|
Chiefs
KC
|
|---|---|---|
| Offense Ranking OFF RNK | 22nd | 16th |
| Defense Ranking DEF RNK | 6th | 9th |
| Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG | 319.7 | 327.6 |
| Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG | 315 | 320.6 |
| Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG | 207.4 | 222.4 |
| Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG | 1.1 | 0.8 |
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