NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Ravens At Buccaneers Monday Night Football

Same game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL Week 7 odds. For island games during the 2024 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer up some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll be looking for SGP angles that have some kind of negative correlation included in hopes of uncovering longshots that have a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea here is while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds down for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.
Here, we’ll take a look at SGP options for the Ravens and Buccaneers in Monday Night Football odds.
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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Ravens At Buccaneers
Ravens Game Scripts
The Ravens have shown a clear preference for the plan of attack in a positive game script. When playing from ahead, they’re looking to pound the rock with Derrick Henry.
When they built big early leads against the Cowboys, Bills, and Commanders, Henry averaged 24.3 carries and 160.7 yards.
In the team’s other three contests, he averaged 15.3 carries and 74 yards.
Based on the game line for this one, the market does expect the Ravens to play from ahead again. Even on the road against a solid Bucs team, they’ve been installed as more than field-goal favorites. Henry should get more than his share of totes if that does indeed come to pass.
Can Bucs Attack Ravens Secondary?
When facing the stronger passing offenses on their schedule, the Ravens’ secondary has struggled.
Though Baltimore was able to win against Cincinnati thanks to Lamar Jackson’s heroics, Joe Burrow shredded the defense for 392 yards and five touchdowns. The Chiefs moved the ball at will, and the Commanders did so consistently even in a losing effort.
Well, passing the football is one thing the Bucs certainly do well. Even with offensive coordinator Dave Canales, often credited for nurturing a Baker Mayfield revival, having moved on, this unit has thrived. They rank in the top 10 in both pass offense DVOA and EPA/play.
The Ravens’ secondary may be in for another long day.
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Predictions For NFL SGP Picks
Henry’s yardage and carries look clearly positively correlated with a Ravens win and cover.
However, I could see this Bucs team having some comeback potential even if they have to play from behind. I explained why I like their passing game here in my NFL picks for the week. A comeback, even a fake one that covers +3.5 like the Cowboys authored, seems within the realm of reason.
Therefore, we can parlay a big Henry game with the Bucs for some added value. By using yardage instead of carries, we also build in the chance for him to rip off a big play and go over even if they aren’t necessarily playing from a positive game state.
When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps. The following NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+410).
- D. Henry Over 85.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Bucs +3.5 (-110)
If you were to put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get a $25.70 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software is offering more than 1.5x that amount. The software does not look at matchup research.
Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for Buccaneers vs. Ravens.
Buccaneers Vs. Ravens Odds
While this article focuses on same game parlay picks and odds for Ravens at Bucs, find the best odds below for the main markets like spread and over/under. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL Week 7 odds.
Monday Night Football Injury Report
Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||
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Baltimore Ravens | ||||||||||
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ||||||||||
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Ravens at Bucs Matchup
STATS |
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Offense Ranking OFF RNK | 1st | 3rd |
Defense Ranking DEF RNK | 11th | 19th |
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG | 424.9 | 399.6 |
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG | 324.2 | 341.8 |
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG | 237.4 | 250.4 |
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG | 0.6 | 1.4 |