NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Dolphins At Packers TNF
Same-game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL Week 13 odds. For island games during the 2024 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll look for SGP angles with some negative correlation to uncover longshots with a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea is that while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.
Here, we’ll examine SGP options for the Dolphins and Packers for TNF. You can also explore promo codes from the best sports betting sites.
BetFinder Tool: Find Odds For NFL SGP Picks
To search TNF player props for the Dolphins and Packers, type in the player’s name below. For additional odds, click the “Show all bets” button. Click on the odds anywhere in the table to bet now.
Potential NFL SGP Picks For Dolphins At Packers
De’Vone Achane To Continue TD Binge?
Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, De’Von Achane has dominated the Dolphins’ touchdown share to a comical degree. He has scored in four out of five games while accounting for six of the team’s 16 touchdowns during that time frame. He has done it both on the ground (twice) and through the air (four times).
Yet, the ATTD markets still seem only mildly enthusiastic about Achane. He’s still around even money to score in a game with a fairly high total here.
The fact this game will take place in the cold should only further encourage the Dolphins to lean on Achane. The Packers have also given up the 10th-most receiving yards to backs on the season. So even if the Dolphins are playing from behind, that doesn’t necessarily mean Tyreek Hill and Co. will get all the volume.
Can Tagovailoa Handle The Cold?
Last year’s playoff game against the Chiefs exposed how unprepared the Dolphins were to play in winter. For those needing a refresher, Miami’s offense scored just seven points in a 26-7 rout. They mustered 264 yards on 4.5 YPP while going 1-for-12 on third down.
As a warm-weather QB who went to a warm-weather school, this may be a weakness inherent to Tua Tagovailoa’s game.
If so, the Dolphins could be in for another long night. According to the NFL weather forecast, it won’t quite match the absurd conditions of that Chiefs game, but the game is still expected to take place in sub-20 temperatures.
Either the Dolphins have figured out how to work through this issue, or the Packers might roll despite the relatively short line.
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Predictions For NFL SGP Picks
If Tagovailoa remains unable to perform in cold, then the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field will prove quite hostile indeed. Like the Chiefs did last year, the Packers could easily run away with this one.
At the same time, I can’t ignore how dominant Achane has been regarding his touchdown share. The Dolphins are still likely to score some points even if they perform poorly and get beaten. Achane could score those points, and the Packers could still cover some alternate spreads if cold weather remains the Dolphins’ kryptonite.
Regarding SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough the importance of shopping around. Our research for this season’s strategy sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps.
These NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+500).
- De’Von Achane ATTD (-115)
- Packers -7 (+155)
If you put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get a $36.74 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software offers almost 1.5x that. The software does not look at matchup research.
Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for the Packers vs. Dolphins.
Packers Vs. Dolphins Odds
While this article focuses on same-game parlay picks and odds for Dolphins at Packers, find the best odds below for the main markets, like spread and total. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL Week 13 odds.
Thursday Night Football Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Miami Dolphins | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dolphins at Packers Matchup
| STATS |
Dolphins
MIA
|
Packers
GB
|
|---|---|---|
| Offense Ranking OFF RNK | 19th | 6th |
| Defense Ranking DEF RNK | 9th | 13th |
| Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG | 331.8 | 375.9 |
| Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG | 318.3 | 329.1 |
| Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG | 226.5 | 231.2 |
| Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG | 1 | 1.2 |
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