NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Bills At Jets Monday Night Football

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL SGP picks

Same game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL Week 6 odds. For island games during the 2024 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer up some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll be looking for SGP angles that have some kind of negative correlation included in hopes of uncovering longshots that have a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea here is while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds down for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.

Here, we’ll take a look at SGP options for the Bills at Jets in Monday Night Football odds.

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BetFinder Tool: Find Odds For NFL SGP Picks

To search MNF player props for the Bills and Jets, type in the player’s name below. For additional odds, click the “Show all bets” button. Click on the odds anywhere in the table to bet now.

Potential NFL SGP Picks For Bills At Jets

Will Rodgers Bounce Back?

Aaron Rodgers had a rough day at the office in Week 5, getting battered by the harsh Vikings defense en route to three turnovers.

Things could look a bit better this week.

The Bills hardly ever blitz (32nd in blitz rate), relying on their rushers to win up front. That will be difficult here against a Jets line that’s ninth in Adjusted Sack Rate, particularly with Ed Oliver looking questionable again. The Bills’ best pass rusher missed Thursday’s practice. Fellow QB-hound Von Miller is definitely out (suspension).

If Rodgers has clean pockets, he should be able to rack up some yards. The Bills got killed last week by the only high-level passing attack they’ve faced. C.J. Stroud went for 8.5 YPA despite only having Nico Collins available for about half of the game.

How Much Work For Wilson?

The pattern for predicting Garrett Wilson’s usage has been clear so far. When the Jets are down big, and Rodgers is desperate, he forces the ball Wilson’s way. When that isn’t the case, Wilson puts up pretty pedestrian stat lines. Consider his averages in neutral/positive script games vs. strongly negative.

  • Jets down big (two games): 17 targets (!), 80.5 yards
  • Positive/neutral scripts (three games): 7.7 targets, 43.4 yards

This game has a close spread, and I happen to like the Jets and the points in my NFL picks. If I’m right, then Wilson might not get the lion’s share of the production, disappointing fantasy owners yet again.

Instead, we might see the tight ends and backs peppered here. For some reason, Rodgers loves targeting Tyler Conklin, and Breece Hall and Braelon Allen get their fair share of looks. Furthermore, while the Bills have a talented pair of outside corners in Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, the safeties and linebackers look beatable.

Predictions For NFL SGP Picks

I’m looking for a good day from Aaron Rodgers here, but if I’m right about Wilson’s script-dependent usage, he could still go under his receiving total. I don’t expect the Jets to need to force-feed him the rock here. So, unfortunately, for my fantasy teams, I don’t think we’re looking at another day of 15+ targets.

When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps. The following NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+375).

  • A. Rodgers Over 225.5 passing yards (-115)
  • G. Wilson Under 61.5 receiving yards (-120)

If you were to put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get a $24.28 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software is offering about 1.5x that amount. The software does not look at matchup research. If you want to make it spicier, add Jets moneyline (+114) to get to +900.

Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for Jets vs. Bills.

Jets Vs. Bills Odds

While this article focuses on same game parlay picks and odds for Bills at Jets, find the best odds below for the main markets like spread and over/under. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL Week 6 odds.

Monday Night Football Injury Report

Player Pos Position Injury Status Snaps/g Snaps Per Game Comment
Buffalo Bills
Amari Cooper WR Wrist Questionable 50.8 Cooper was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Colts.
Curtis Samuel WR Pectoral Questionable 18.3 Samuel was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Colts.
Dawuane Smoot DE Wrist Out 33.6 Smoot is dealing with a wrist injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
DeWayne Carter DT Wrist Out 28.9 Carter is dealing with a wrist injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Kaiir Elam CB Shoulder Questionable 13.7 Elam was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Colts.
Keon Coleman WR Wrist Questionable 43 Coleman did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Colts.
Mack Hollins WR Shoulder Questionable 48.1 Hollins was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Colts.
Matt Milano LB Bicep Out 0 Milano has suffered a torn bicep and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Reggie Gilliam FB Hip Questionable 27.3 Gilliam was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Colts.
Shane Buechele QB Neck Out 0 Buechele is dealing with a neck injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the entire 2024-25 season.
Tommy Doyle OT Undisclosed Out 0 Doyle is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the physically unable to perform list. He will miss at least four games.
Travis Clayton OT Shoulder Out 0 Clayton is dealing with a shoulder injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the entire 2024-25 season.
Tylan Grable OT Groin Out 8.7 Grable is dealing with a groin injury and has been added to the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
New York Jets
Alijah Vera-Tucker G Ankle Questionable 59.6 Vera-Tucker did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Allen Lazard WR Chest Out 55.4 Lazard has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Ashtyn Davis S Concussion Probable 37.7 Davis was a full participant in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
C.J. Mosley LB Neck Questionable 29.8 Mosley did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Chazz Surratt LB Heel Questionable 24.3 Surratt was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Chuck Clark S Ankle Out 56.5 Clark is dealing with a high ankle sprain and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Greg Zuerlein K Knee Out 7.9 Zuerlein is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Jake Hanson OL Hamstring Questionable 14.8 Hanson did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Jermaine Johnson LB Achilles Out 46.5 Johnson has suffered a ruptured Achilles and has been placed on the injured reserve. He will miss the remainder of the 2024-25 season.
Jimmy Ciarlo LB Knee Out 0 Ciarlo is dealing with an ACL injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the remainder of the 2024-25 season.
John Simpson OL Groin Questionable 61.2 Simpson was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Jordan Travis QB Undisclosed Out 0 Travis is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the non-football injury list. He will miss at least four games.
Leki Fotu DT Knee Out 33 Fotu has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Malik Taylor WR Undisclosed Out 0 Taylor is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-2025 season.
Marcus Riley WR Undisclosed Out 0 Riley is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Michael Carter II CB Back Questionable 27.9 Carter II was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Morgan Moses OL Knee Questionable 61.3 Moses was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Solomon Thomas DL Knee Questionable 32.7 Thomas did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Cardinals.
Wes Schweitzer OL Hand Out 0 Schweitzer is dealing with a hand injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Xavier Newman-Johnson OL Neck Out 5.1 Newman is dealing with a neck injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Zaire Barnes LB Ankle Out 0 Barnes is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.

Bills at Jets Matchup

STATS
Bills logo Bills BUF
Jets logo Jets NYJ
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 15th 25th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 17th 4th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 335.2 308.7
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 333.3 290.8
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 216.1 221
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 0.4 1.1
Photo by AP/Steve Luciano

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