NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Bills At Jets Monday Night Football

Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated at October 11, 2024

Same game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL Week 6 odds. For island games during the 2024 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer up some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We'll be looking for SGP angles that have some kind of negative correlation included in hopes of uncovering longshots that have a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea here is while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds down for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.

Here, we'll take a look at SGP options for the Bills at Jets in Monday Night Football odds.

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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Bills At Jets

Will Rodgers Bounce Back?

Aaron Rodgers had a rough day at the office in Week 5, getting battered by the harsh Vikings defense en route to three turnovers.

Things could look a bit better this week.

The Bills hardly ever blitz (32nd in blitz rate), relying on their rushers to win up front. That will be difficult here against a Jets line that's ninth in Adjusted Sack Rate, particularly with Ed Oliver looking questionable again. The Bills' best pass rusher missed Thursday's practice. Fellow QB-hound Von Miller is definitely out (suspension).

If Rodgers has clean pockets, he should be able to rack up some yards. The Bills got killed last week by the only high-level passing attack they've faced. C.J. Stroud went for 8.5 YPA despite only having Nico Collins available for about half of the game.

How Much Work For Wilson?

The pattern for predicting Garrett Wilson's usage has been clear so far. When the Jets are down big, and Rodgers is desperate, he forces the ball Wilson's way. When that isn't the case, Wilson puts up pretty pedestrian stat lines. Consider his averages in neutral/positive script games vs. strongly negative.

Jets down big (two games): 17 targets (!), 80.5 yards
Positive/neutral scripts (three games): 7.7 targets, 43.4 yards

This game has a close spread, and I happen to like the Jets and the points in my NFL picks. If I'm right, then Wilson might not get the lion's share of the production, disappointing fantasy owners yet again.

Instead, we might see the tight ends and backs peppered here. For some reason, Rodgers loves targeting Tyler Conklin, and Breece Hall and Braelon Allen get their fair share of looks. Furthermore, while the Bills have a talented pair of outside corners in Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, the safeties and linebackers look beatable.

Predictions For NFL SGP Picks

I'm looking for a good day from Aaron Rodgers here, but if I'm right about Wilson's script-dependent usage, he could still go under his receiving total. I don't expect the Jets to need to force-feed him the rock here. So, unfortunately, for my fantasy teams, I don't think we're looking at another day of 15+ targets.

When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season's strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps. The following NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+375).

A. Rodgers Over 225.5 passing yards (-115)
G. Wilson Under 61.5 receiving yards (-120)

If you were to put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you'd get a $24.28 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software is offering about 1.5x that amount. The software does not look at matchup research. If you want to make it spicier, add Jets moneyline (+114) to get to +900.

Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for Jets vs. Bills.

Jets Vs. Bills Odds

While this article focuses on same game parlay picks and odds for Bills at Jets, find the best odds below for the main markets like spread and over/under. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL Week 6 odds.