NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Titans At Dolphins Monday Night Football
Same game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL Week 4 odds. For island games during the 2024 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer up some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll be looking for SGP angles that have some kind of negative correlation included in hopes of uncovering longshots that have a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea here is while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds down for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.
Here, we’ll take a look at SGP options for the Titans at Dolphins in Monday Night Football odds. With the Over/Under in the low 30s and scoring projected to be low, keep that in mind before assembling SGPs with a bunch of overs or alt overs.
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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Titans At Dolphins
Can A Miami QB Get Offense Going?
This game is a difficult one to handicap because as of Friday, it’s still unknown who will be playing quarterback for the Dolphins. Last week, Skylar Thompson started in lieu of Tua Tagovailoa. Not only was he ineffective, but he also got hurt. Tim Boyle entered the game. He has had a few chances in the NFL and has consistently shown he can’t play at this level.
The options for Week 4 seem to involve either of those two or scrap heap pickup Snoop Huntley. Huntley had a solid run as a backup for the Ravens, but it’s unknown how he’ll operate outside of that ecosystem.
Obviously, the situation isn’t great.
Thus, prop betting numbers for star WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have suffered. In fact, they have plummeted to levels that befit a WR2 and a low-level TE, respectively.
Bettors may be able to pinch their noses and buy low on one or both of these guys. They’re still elite performers, albeit with one likely to draw a grim matchup with L’Jarius Sneed every snap.
Can Either Team Score?
Speaking of plummeting, that’s an apt word to describe scoring across the NFL this year. Defenses have mostly dominated, and the markets have quickly adjusted with some totals in the 30s despite this being a time of year generally friendlier to offenses due to the weather.
This one fits right into that bucket. Along with Browns/Raiders, it has the lowest total of the week at around 36.5.
Certainly, turnovers have played a part. Titans QB Will Levis has fed blooper reels with weekly blow-ups. Tennessee sits dead last in turnover EPA.
But, moving the ball on a down-to-down basis has also been a struggle. Both teams rank in the bottom 11 in Success Rate and the bottom 10 in yards per play.
Unless Levis continues giving the ball away, this game looks like it will be a slog. Miami especially doesn’t appear capable of taking advantage of its speed at receiver for big plays. Thompson had an average depth of target of 5.8 on Sunday as the team tried to lean on shorter stuff. The Seahawks simply sat on it, and Tennessee will likely do the same until someone with a sea animal on his helmet proves he can make a deep throw.
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Predictions For NFL SGP Picks
Both Hill and Waddle have incredibly low receiving totals for this game. At this time, with no QB set as the starter, there’s a limited menu of prop options for Dolphins players. But regardless of who starts, we can safely assume these guys are live to go over these piddling numbers.
Still, it doesn’t seem likely that 80-yard touchdowns are going to be occurring. None of the possible options at QB have the sort of arm to beat a defense deep. Levis does, but he’s been nothing but dreadful so far, so it’s hard to think that will change.
Given how short the receiving props are for Hill and Waddle, it’s possible both could go over while the game still has room to stay under the total.
When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps. The following NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+800).
- Jaylen Waddle Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Tyreek Hill Over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Under 36.5 points (-108)
If you were to put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get a $57.33 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software is offering about 1.5x that amount. The software is not looking at matchup research.
Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for Dolphins vs. Titans.
Dolphins Vs. Titans Odds
While this article focuses on same game parlay picks and odds for Titans at Dolphins, find the best odds below for the main markets like spread and over/under. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL Week 4 odds.
Monday Night Football Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||||||||
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Tennessee Titans | ||||||||||||||||
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Titans at Dolphins Matchup
| STATS |
Titans
TEN
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Dolphins
MIA
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|---|---|---|
| Offense Ranking OFF RNK | N/A | N/A |
| Defense Ranking DEF RNK | N/A | N/A |
| Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG | ||
| Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG | ||
| Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG | ||
| Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG |
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