NFL Playoffs SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Commanders At Lions

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL SGP picks

Same-game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL playoffs odds. For playoff games during the 2024-25 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll look for SGP angles with some negative correlation to uncover longshots with a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea is that while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.

Here, we’ll examine SGP options for the Commanders and Lions in the evening game on Saturday.

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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Commanders At Lions

Can Commanders Get Stops?

This game doesn’t set up well for the Washington defense. That’s shocking news, but let’s dive into some numbers.

Detroit probably has the second-best offense in the NFL after the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ defense ranks below the fold by most metrics. They’re 23rd in DVOA and 22nd in EPA/play allowed. Most concerning, they’re poor against the run, ranking 27th in EPA/play allowed.

That’s bad since the Lions are first in Adjusted Line Yards and have the consensus best offensive line in football. Oh, their one-two punch at RB is intact again, with David Montgomery returning.

A further strike against the Washington defense is they like to play a decent amount of man coverage (16th in the NFL). Jared Goff produces significantly better against man than zone, gaining close to 50 points of passer rating.

An Upset Brewing?

Still, Washington has shown enough on offense that they have a chance here. That’s because, with all its injuries, Detroit’s defense is nothing to write home about.

Granted, they played a nice game against Minnesota in the finale. However, before that game, they allowed an average of 41 points to Buffalo, Green Bay, and San Francisco, the other three good offenses they faced down the stretch. For stretches of the 49ers and Bills games, they looked utterly powerless.

Like the Bills, the Commanders bring a rushing quarterback who is also fully capable of beating the defense from the pocket.

On the other end, Washington may be up against it, but the offense gives them a real chance.

Predictions For NFL SGP Picks

If Washington is to be competitive in this game, it will likely be due to their offense. It’s hard to see a scenario where the Commanders’ defense gets stopped regularly. They’ll likely need to come up with a few big plays, such as turnovers or fourth-down stops, to keep the Lions under 35 points.

Thus, we can build an inversely correlated parlay around a high Detroit team total with a Washington win.

Regarding SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough the importance of shopping around. Our research for this season’s strategy sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps.

These NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+2400).

  • Lions team total Over 31.5 (-122)
  • Commanders moneyline (+370)

Putting these prices into a standard parlay calculator would give you a $75.54 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software offers more than triple that. The software does not look at matchup research.

Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for the Lions vs. Commanders.

Lions Vs. Commanders Odds

While this article focuses on same-game parlay picks and odds for Commanders at Lions, find the best odds below for the main markets, like spread and total. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL divisional odds.

Commanders At Lions NFL Injury Report

Player Pos Position Injury Status Snaps/g Snaps Per Game Comment
Detroit Lions
Alim McNeill DL Knee Out 48.6 McNeill suffered a torn ACL and could miss the start of the 2025-26 season.
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Knee Out 46 Rodriguez suffered a torn ACL and could miss the start of the 2025-26 season.
Washington Commanders
Sam Cosmi G Knee Out 0 Cosmi suffered a torn ACL and is expected to miss the start of the 2025-26 season.

Commanders at Lions Matchup

STATS
Commanders logo Commanders WAS
Lions logo Lions DET
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 5th 2nd
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 12th 20th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 369.6 409.5
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 326.9 342.4
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 215.6 263.2
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 0.9 0.9
Photo by AP/Jason Behnken

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