NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Saints At Chiefs Monday Night Football
Same game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL Week 5 odds. For island games during the 2024 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer up some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll be looking for SGP angles that have some kind of negative correlation included in hopes of uncovering longshots that have a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea here is while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds down for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.
Here, we’ll take a look at SGP options for the Seahawks at Chiefs in Monday Night Football odds.
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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Saints At Chiefs
Can Both Passing Attacks Move Between The 20s?
It’s a little jarring to see a total of 43 between a Patrick Mahomes-led offense and a team that scored 40 with ease in its first two games, but such is life in 2024 NFL. The passing props, in particular, in this game look quite low. One would assume there were howling winds in Kansas City numbers like this were posted between these teams in the past few years.
However, the conditions look pristine, and neither team is likely to be able to run the ball all that much.
The Chiefs are now down to a running back they signed off the couch two weeks ago. Though Kareem Hunt looked good last week, the Saints’ defense has been excellent so far, ranking second in defense DVOA.
Patrick Mahomes will have to do most of the work even with Rashee Rice now sidelined.
On the other side of the ball, a much-maligned Chiefs rush defense suddenly appears to have teeth. They completely smothered Bijan Robinson and the Falcons and overwhelmed a decimated Chargers OL. What they did to Derrick Henry in Week 1 (13 carries for 46 yards) suddenly looks much more impressive, given how the Ravens have run all over respectable Bills and Cowboys defenses.
Given all this, Derek Carr’s passing prop (213.5) looks like it belongs in a game with a total one touchdown lower.
Field Goals Or Touchdowns?
Both defenses in this game have excelled at forcing field goals instead of touchdowns.
New Orleans has a laughably good 22.22 TD% allowed. That won’t last, but they have a nice matchup against a Chiefs offense that has struggled in the red zone for years now. Their short-yardage rushing has been the NFL’s worst for years, and their TD% once again ranks in the bottom 10.
As for the Saints, they look likely to be without their red-zone multi-tool, Taysom Hill. He punched in twice last week before going down injured. The Saints subsequently lost the game in part due to stalling at the 5. A rib injury doesn’t sound ideal as far as coming back within a week. We’ll see what the medical staff can do with Hill.
Don’t expect either coach to get after it on fourth down, either. Both teams rank among the 11 least aggressive according to the fourth-down calculators at RBSDM.
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Predictions For NFL SGP Picks
Given the quality of these two passing offenses, it’s not hard to imagine both QBs going over these fairly meager passing totals.
However, if the offenses stall out in the red zone, we might be looking at field goals and not touchdowns. It’s been a consistent issue for the Chiefs. And the Saints’ high-flying ways have slowed down in the past two games as teams get film on Klint Kubiak’s scheme and the competition gets a little tougher.
Perhaps the game still stays under the total — a consistent theme with the Chiefs dating to last season — even if the QBs turn in fairly productive days.
When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps. The following NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+1100).
- Under 43 (-110)
- P. Mahomes Over 233.5 passing yards (-115)
- D. Carr Over 213.5 passing yards (-115)
If you were to put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get a $56.72 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software is offering about twice that amount. The software does not look at matchup research.
Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for Chiefs vs. Saints.
Chiefs Vs. Saints Odds
While this article focuses on same game parlay picks and odds for Saints at Chiefs, find the best odds below for the main markets like spread and over/under. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL Week 5 odds.
Monday Night Football Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||||||||||||||
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Kansas City Chiefs | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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New Orleans Saints | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Saints at Chiefs Matchup
| STATS |
Saints
NO
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Chiefs
KC
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|---|---|---|
| Offense Ranking OFF RNK | N/A | N/A |
| Defense Ranking DEF RNK | N/A | N/A |
| Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG | ||
| Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG | ||
| Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG | ||
| Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG |
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