NFL Playoffs SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Bills At Chiefs

Same-game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL playoffs odds. For playoff games during the 2024-25 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll look for SGP angles with some negative correlation to uncover longshots with a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea is that while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.
Here, we’ll examine SGP options for the Bills and Chiefs in the evening game on Sunday.
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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Bills At Chiefs
Can Chiefs Rediscover Explosive Passing Offense?
For the second straight season, the Chiefs’ passing attack has been quite tame. Patrick Mahomes is still an effective QB, but he ranked 30th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in average depth of target (aDOT).
Last time out against the Bills, in a 30-21 loss, the story was no different. Mahomes had intended air yards of 6.9 per throw in that game. Despite a losing effort that would theoretically call for more aggression, that wasn’t terribly higher than his 6.4 season-long number. The Chiefs had only one play longer than 20 yards.
However, there may be reason to believe the Chiefs can rediscover their explosive passing game here.
For one thing, the Bills have a weak point at safety. Damar Hamlin is nothing to write home about, and fellow starter Taylor Rapp may not even suit up after getting hurt against Baltimore.
Plus, Mahomes has shown against these very Bills that he can dial it up in the playoffs. Just last year, after a similarly uninspiring regular season, Mahomes went for 9.3 YPA in a road win.
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Predictions For NFL SGP Picks
I think there’s a reasonable chance this game turns into a back-and-forth scoring affair. Maybe not necessarily a shootout, since both teams have been a bit more methodical this season, but I don’t imagine there will be a ton of punting in good NFL weather conditions with these offenses against these defenses.
Last week, I felt like we’d see a high-success but low-explosiveness attack from K.C. This week, it could turn out the opposite. Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown give the Chiefs dangerous outside threats. It’s just a question of whether Mahomes can connect with them.
At more than a 10-1 payout in an SGP, it may be worth betting on.
Regarding SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough the importance of shopping around. Our research for this season’s strategy sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps.
These NFL SGP picks pay out best at DraftKings Sportsbook (+1300).
- P. Mahomes 300+ passing yards (+270)
- P. Mahomes under 36.5 attempts (-110)
Putting these prices into a standard parlay calculator would give you a $79.72 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software offers about 1.5x that. The software does not look at matchup research.
Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for the Chiefs vs. Bills.
Chiefs Vs. Bills Odds
While this article focuses on same-game parlay picks and odds for the Bills at the Chiefs, you can also find the best odds below for the main markets, like spread and total. And be sure to lock in the best NFL promo codes before you make any wagers on AFC championship odds.
Bills At Chiefs NFL Injury Report
Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||
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Buffalo Bills | ||||||||||
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Kansas City Chiefs | ||||||||||
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Bills at Chiefs Matchup
STATS |
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Offense Ranking OFF RNK | 10th | 16th |
Defense Ranking DEF RNK | 17th | 9th |
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG | 359.1 | 327.6 |
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG | 341.5 | 320.6 |
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG | 227.9 | 222.4 |
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG | 0.5 | 0.8 |