NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Jets At 49ers Monday Night Football

Same game parlays represent one of the most popular ways to bet NFL odds these days. For island games during the 2024 NFL season, TheLines.com will offer up some possible NFL SGP picks that bettors can consider. We’ll be looking for SGP angles that have some kind of negative correlation included in hopes of uncovering longshots that have a better chance of cashing than the odds imply. The idea here is while sportsbook SGP machines adjust odds down for correlated parlays, the inverse is true for uncorrelated.

Here, we’ll take a look at SGP options for the Jets vs. 49ers in Monday Night Football odds. Aaron Rodgers looks for a mulligan on his Jets debut, while the 49ers look to retool their defense with new coordinator Nick Sorensen after some personnel losses.

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Potential NFL SGP Picks For Jets At 49ers

Garrett Wilson Primed For Big Season?

Aaron Rodgers has a strong history of feeding his WR1. Jordy Nelson had a short stretch of being one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. Then, Davante Adams broke out into a superstar as Rodgers fed him a feast of the target share.

Enter Garrett Wilson for 2024. Just looking at Wilson’s production so far, one would be pretty impressed. Back-to-back seasons over 1,000 yards, with 178 catches and 7 TDs? Pretty strong start to his career.

In the context of the New York Jets, the worst offense in the NFL by both EPA/play and DVOA last year, those numbers are staggering.

Looking around at this Jets offense, it’s easy to see a scenario where Wilson becomes a modern-day Adams. There simply isn’t anyone else to throw to unless Mike Williams is completely unaffected by his recovery from an ACL tear. Entering his age-30 season, that seems unlikely. RB Breece Hall is probably the No. 2 target, which doesn’t seem ideal.

Can Rodgers Pass At Will vs. the 49ers?

Speaking of older football players coming off major injuries, Rodgers enters his age-41 campaign off of a torn Achilles. Can he still be the high-volume MVP candidate of seasons past?

Probably in short bursts, but it seems farfetched to think he can do so consistently.

The Jets may opt to lean more on their running game than expected. The aforementioned Hall has done admirable work behind a dreadful offensive line.

Thankfully for the skill players in New York, the team completely rebuilt the line, and it looks far better. Every member of the line could reasonably be projected somewhere between average (C Joe Tippmann) and elite (LT Tyron Smith). There’s enough here to produce league-average run blocking, even if pass protection looks like it will be the main strength.

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Predictions For NFL SGP Picks

I could foresee a scenario where Garrett Wilson has a pretty big day here. His team is expected to play from behind. He’s likely to be matched up with Charvarius Ward a lot, so that will encumber him a bit since Ward is a high-level coverage man. At the same time, Wilson is borderline elite, he has a good QB throwing the ball, and he’s likely to get a huge share of the targets.

Even if he has a big day — let’s say he manages 90+ receiving yards — it’s possible Rodgers still doesn’t surpass his passing yards total. The 49ers do have some question marks on their defense this year. They’re working in new pieces at LB, DT, and EDGE, and the CBs look pretty weak outside of Ward. But there isn’t that much they need to worry about here outside of Wilson in the passing game.

When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps. The following NFL SGP picks pay out best at Caesars Sportsbook (+900).

• Garrett Wilson 90+ receiving yards (+190)
• Aaron Rodgers Under 235.5 passing yards (-127)

If you were to put these prices into a normal parlay calculator, you’d get about a $41.18 payout on a $10 bet. Because of the inverse correlation, the SGP software is offering more than double that. The software is not looking at matchup research.

Good luck with your NFL SGP picks for 49ers vs. Jets.

49ers Vs. Jets Odds

While this article focuses on same game parlay picks and odds for Jets at 49ers, find the best odds below for the main markets like spread and over/under. And be sure to lock in the best NFL Week 1 promo codes before you make any wagers on NFL Week 1 odds.