NFL Same Game Parlay Picks: Texans Vs. Jets Week 9 TNF
NFL Week 9 kicks off with an AFC battle between the Houston Texans and New York Jets. TheLines.com staff is focused on delivering smarter NFL SGP picks and ideas. Our strategy is to target what appear to be uncorrelated SGPs that may actually fit a player’s role. Yet, sportsbook SGP machines often spit out longshot prices better than the fair odds, in our opinion. NFL same game parlays and player props are available at sportsbooks within Thursday Night Football odds.
Below, we’ll highlight NFL TNF player props and a potential Texans vs. Jets smarter SGP strategy for those player prop picks.
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2024 Strategy For NFL SGP Picks
When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps:
SGP machines tend to offer lower payouts than the fair odds on correlated same game parlays.
One example of an uncorrelated SGP that apps may have trouble pricing is running back with high red zone usage for potential touchdowns but low rushing volume, overall, for high-end yardage totals.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord, with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas every day. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.
Smarter NFL SGP PICKS: Texans AT jets Thursday Night Football
I will be referencing FanDuel Sportsbook odds, but as mentioned above, it’s a very strong practice to shop for the best odds. If you only have accounts at one or two sportsbooks, now is the time to open more and lock in additional NFL promo codes.
Same Game Parlay Idea at +1370 Odds
- Tank Dell anytime touchdown
- Tank Dell Under 58.5 receiving yards
- Tank Dell 4+ receptions made
Dell’s receiving yards total instantly jumps out to me as an overreaction to the likelihood of Houston being without Stefon Diggs in this game. Already down Nico Collins for another week, the Texans are expected to lean more on their speedster WR, but I am wary of him accomplishing that in the receiving yards department. Dell only had four catches for 35 yards in Week 8. Everything for Dell has been down this season compared to his rookie year. He is averaging only 1.0 yards per route run after 2.22 last season. He has been targeted on 16.7% of his routes after 23.5% last season.
While Collins’ and Diggs’ absences add volume potential for Dell in terms of receptions, this is still a tough matchup on paper. Dell still played outside receiver with Diggs out, and we have not seen him play from the slot often to open his career. The Jets have allowed a league-low 48.8% catch rate to outside receivers thus far in 2024.
It is worth noting that Dell has accomplished these three seemingly “uncorrelated” legs in two of his last three games. With all the WR injuries in recent weeks, the Texans seem to be focusing on getting Dell the football down inside scoring position, resulting in two touchdown grabs in his last three games. Additionally, Dell has four-plus receptions made in four of his last five outings.
Thursday Night Football Injury Report
Team injuries
Last Updated on 12.21.2024| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||||||||
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HOW TO FIND TNF Promos For Same Game Parlays
Most SGP promos will require you to opt in to receive the SGP promo benefits. We are seeing some bonus-bets-back SGP offers for all users at FanDuel and profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets back if one leg loses.
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