NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay Picks: Target Dawson Knox In Chiefs At Bills SGP?
The marquee matchup on the NFL Week 11 odds board resides in Orchard Park, N.Y., as the undefeated Chiefs battle the 8-2 Bills. TheLines.com staff is focused on delivering smarter NFL SGP picks. Sportsbook SGP machines create longshot options better than the fair odds, so I’ve created an uncorrelated one. Below, I’ll highlight it for the Bills vs. Chiefs.
When sifting through various same-game parlays, be sure also to explore the best sportsbook promos from the best sports betting sites.
BETFINDER TOOL: chiefs at bills PLAYER PROPS
To search Bills vs. Chiefs player props, type in any name below. For additional odds, click the “show all bets” button. Click on the odds anywhere in the table to bet now. These player props are widely available.
2024 STRATEGY FOR NFL SGP PICKS
Regarding SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough the importance of shopping around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps:
SGP machines offer lower payouts than the fair odds on correlated same-game parlays.
One example of an uncorrelated SGP that apps may have trouble pricing is a tailback with high red zone usage for potential touchdowns but low rushing volume overall for high-end yardage totals.
Smarter NFL SGP picks: chiefs at bills
I’ll reference DraftKings Sportsbook odds, but as previously mentioned, shopping for the best odds is a strong practice. If you only have accounts at one or two sportsbooks, now is the time to open more and lock in additional NFL promo codes.
Same Game Parlay: +800
- Chiefs To Win
- Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown
On the surface, the Bills have a prime motivational spot after falling to the Chiefs in last season’s AFC Divisional game. Bettors often consider situational spots that aren’t fully baked into the betting market. These circumstances uncover conditions where teams frequently perform above or below their normal ranking — relative to the moneyline or point spread.
However, the defending champs boast the third-best run defense DVOA. In their favor, Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady will look to establish the ground game on early downs because of its banged-up receiving corps.
Historically, Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog. Kansas City could fall short eventually after going 7-0 in one-score games this season, but I wouldn’t bet against Mahomes here.
Conversely, even if the Chiefs control the game script, I’d look elsewhere for player props. In this scenario, Josh Allen will likely air it out often, benefiting tight end Dawson Knox. With fellow TE Dalton Kincaid banged up, he’ll face a unit that surrenders the second-highest target rate to the position.
Don’t be surprised if Knox finds the end zone, but Kansas City emerges victorious.
chiefs at bills: spread, moneyline, total
Team injuries
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how to find TNF promos for same-game parlays
Most SGP promos will require you to opt in to haul in the SGP promo benefits. We’re seeing bonus-bets-back SGP offers for every customer at FanDuel and profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets back if one leg loses.
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Watch: BetMGM Trader On Bills Vs. Chiefs Odds
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