NFL Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks: Patrick Mahomes In Texans At Chiefs Week 16 SGP?

Written By Road to CFB | Last Updated December 20, 2024

NFL Saturdays are coming to your TV as the NFL Playoff field looks to secure its final few teams. Two teams that secured their seat in the dance square off as the Houston Texans (9-5) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1). On the NFL Week 16 odds board, the Chiefs are Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-121) on BetRivers home favorites with a total of 42.5 (-105) on Caesars points. Let’s explore same-game parlays for this clash between two AFC division leaders. This week’s NFL SGP picks for Texans at Chiefs take an angle on injury news that potentially skewed player markets.

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2024 STRATEGY FOR NFL SGP PICKS

As always, when betting on NFL odds, be sure to shop around. But when dealing with SGPs, that importance magnifies. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps:

SGP machines offer lower payouts than the fair odds on correlated same-game parlays.

One example of an uncorrelated SGP that apps may have trouble pricing is a tailback with high red zone usage for potential touchdowns but low rushing volume overall for high-end yardage totals.

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Smarter Same-Game Parlay: Texans at Chiefs

We used BetMGM Sportsbook for these NFL SGP picks. However, I strongly recommend price shopping when building your SGPs. If you only have one or two sportsbook accounts, now is a great time to open more and lock in extra NFL promo codes as the postseason looms.

This week, I’m looking to take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury sustained last week. Or, I should say, the lack of uncertainty. Let’s get into why:

NFL SGP Picks for Texans-Chiefs: +575

Patrick Mahomes OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-130)
Travis Kelce ATD +200
Texans +3.5 (-110)

Like clockwork, Mahomes appeared to suffer an ankle injury that potentially jeopardized the Chiefs’ postseason success. In Cleveland, Mahomes’ ankle was rolled up and did not complete the game. However, he was a full participant at practice all week long.

Considering the ankle may be ginger, expect Andy Reid to get the ball out of Mahomes’ hand as quickly as possible Saturday with ample short throws, especially with a ferocious Texans’ pass rush bearing down. An uptick in short, quick completions should see Mahomes attempt over 32.5 pass attempts, which he’s done in eight straight games and 10 of the last 12.

The Texans are tied for seventh in the NFL in touchdowns allowed to tight ends (six) despite a below-average reception share (57, 28th). Travis Kelce stands alone atop TE red zone targets (21) and tied for second in targets inside the 10 (nine). Only two of those 21 red zone targets were converted, but with a higher propensity to give up scores to the TE from Houston and Mahomes, who likely wanted to get the ball out quicker, I’m looking for Kelce to find pay dirt Saturday.

BetMGM says 72% of the money this week is on the Chiefs as of Friday morning. That’s a bit misleading, though, as the Chiefs were priced from +2 (when Mahomes was uncertain to play) to -3. Now, KC’s stagnated at -3.5.

Aside from a lifeless Browns offense that saw them turn to QB3, the Chiefs don’t run away with games. Four of their last five finished within this number, including against the 3-11 Panthers, 2-12 Raiders (division rival, notably), and 9-6 Chargers.

Texans At Chiefs: spread, moneyline, total

Team injuries

Last Updated on 05.06.2025

Player

Pos

Injury

Status

Snaps/g

Comment

Houston Texans

Brevin Jordan	TE	Knee	Out	0	Jordan suffered a torn ACL and could miss the start of the 2025-26 season.
Tank Dell	WR	Knee	Out	0	Dell suffered a dislocated knee and a torn ACL. He will miss the start of the 2025-26 season.

Kansas City Chiefs

BJ Thompson	DE	Undisclosed	Out	0	Thompson is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the non-football injury list.
Jared Wiley	TE	Knee	Out	0	Wiley is recovering from a torn ACL and could miss the start of the 2025-26 season.

how to find NFL promos for same-game parlays

Most SGP promos require you to opt in to qualify for SGP promotional benefits. Currently, FanDuel Sportsbook offers a no-sweat SGP with certain qualifiers. Lose your SGP and get your stake back as bonus bets.

There are also profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets back if one leg loses.