NFL Same Game Parlay Strategy: Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Title Game Picks

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on January 29, 2023
nfl same game parlay

With the AFC Championship game finally here, Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals are facing off against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. With Patrick Mahomes expected to play, but not expected to be his usual self due to his ankle injury, the Bengals have an opening to get back to the Super Bowl not many expected to be this wide. With that, betting on NFL Same Game Parlay combinations with injury news in the mix is a very specific act.

With so much in the air in these NFL playoff odds, and so much attention, everybody will be looking at SGPs. Fortunately, with a good, correlated SGP, there can also be value to be found.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds: How To Bet On The Game

NFL Same Game Parlay Strategy

With the game bouncing around a pick-em depending on the Mahomes injury news, there’s no clear favorite in this game, which means there’s a wide variety of game scripts possible. With that in mind, the one thing we can be fairly sure of is that Mahomes won’t be able to be as elusive as normal, as he wasn’t against the Jaguars last week. For a full preview of Bengals vs. Chiefs, check out TheLines’ Preview, featuring betting odds, our prop tool, and a full weather report from Arrowhead.

Leg 1: Mahomes Over 24.5 Completions

Mahomes’ injury means he won’t be able to run very much in this game, and that when he is able to throw, he’ll be forced into making quick throws, without having the time to let routes to develop. Between Mahomes and Chad Henne last week the Chiefs got to 27 completions, and that was without a rigorous offense pushing them. Unless the Bengals offense also falters, Mahomes will have to throw all game long, and will have to limit himself to short routes to avoid hits.

Leg 2: Joe Burrow Over 14.5 Rushing Yards

Joe Burrow doesn’t run – unless he has to. He’s only gone over this number 7 times this season, but in 5 of those 7 games, it was in one score games. Either as an organizational directive or just his own risk assessment, Burrow doesn’t run in games when he thinks he can win without it. Against Buffalo last week, he ran 6 times for 31 yards, once again proving that in a big game and in a big spot, he’ll scamper, and do so efficiently. Trusting him to do so again in Arrowhead seems logical.

Leg 3: Samaje Perine Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

Kansas City gives up the most yards and the fourth most receptions to running backs in the league. This extended to last week, where backfield screens to Travis Etienne were one of the only reliable sources of offense for the Jags. With Perine coming off of a 5 catch, 31 yard performance in Buffalo, it doesn’t look like his usage split is coming down, and therefore getting Perine against this soft running back pass defense makes a ton of sense.

If you have a strong side preference in this game, it could be added to the SGP, but with so much uncertainty about Mahomes, adding a side to the SGP merely adds uncertainty. This SGP pays +380.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Promos

FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel is offering a No Sweat Same Game Parlay. Opt in under the promos section on the sportsbook app and place a 3+ leg SGP or SGP+ with cash on any NFL divisional round game(s). If your bet loses, get up to $5 in bonus bets back. So take a shot and bet $5 on a Jaguars or Chiefs same game parlay, knowing you have those bonus bets in your back pocket.

This is the SGP promo we would recommend most this weekend, as it carries the least risk.

Caesars Sportsbook Same Game Parlay Boost

Opt-In on the Caesars Sportsbook app and get two 33% Same Game Parlay profit boost tokens to use on a +400 minimum odds SGP, one for each NFL Conference Championship Game on January 29, 2023. The max wager for each NFL SGP Token is $50. The max additional winnings for each NFL SGP Token is $1,000

BetMGM One Game Parlay Insurance

Opt in under Promos on the BetMGM app, place a football One Game Parlay wager with four legs or more, and if one leg misses, get up to $25 back in bet credits.

DraftKings Sportsbook Stepped Up SGP

Opt-in under the Promos tab on the DK Sportsbook app and receive four Stepped Up tokens for NFL same game parlays, one for each divisional round game. Tokens can be used on cash pre-game 3+ leg NFL SGPs. The boost depends on how many legs your SGP has:

  • 3 legs: 20%
  • 4 legs: 25%
  • 5 legs: 30%
  • 6 legs: 40%
  • 7 legs: 50%
  • 8 legs: 65%
  • 9 legs: 80%
  • 10 legs: 100%
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