NFL Rookie of The Year Rankings: Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud, Bryce Young Start Slow

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on September 13, 2023

With Week 1 in the books, there have been first looks at the three rookie quarterbacks, with performances varying. With the three QBs losing in Week 1, the NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year odds have moved significantly. Anthony Richardson impressed in nearly taking Jacksonville to the wire, while Bryce Young and CJ Stroud struggled mightily in their debuts. Bijan Robinson looms as the favorite but split snaps with Tyler Allgeier. WR Zay Flowers was the WR1 in Baltimore at least for Week 1. Therefore, the QBs are going to have to play better to make a case for this award.

NFL Rookie Of The Year Odds

With Week 2 having Richardson heading down to Houston to face Stroud and Young playing on Monday Night Football, the QBs are taking center stage. Before you bet any Rookie of the Year odds, however, check out the best sports betting sites and the best sports betting promo codes to make sure you’re locking in the largest potential profit. The best available odds are listed in the table below.

Week 1 Rookie of the year takeaways

After Week 1, Richardson has cemented himself as the leader in the clubhouse among the three rookie QBs. It was an endorsement of why he was taken fourth overall. His ability to make throws, like the 39-yarder to Pittman down the sideline, was key. As the leading Colts rusher, Richardson also showed his dual-threat skills.

Bijan Robinson’s a real threat, but even still he didn’t get the majority of work out of the backfield in Week 1. If that doesn’t change, he’s a vulnerable favorite in this market. Week 2 rookie QB performance could materially shift these odds.

Panthers QB Bryce Young

Young struggled immensely in Week 1, only managing to rank 24th in Dropback EPA and 26th by success rate. The Panthers’ offense struggled immensely, only scoring 10 points against the improved, but by no means dominant, Falcons defense. Young was especially inaccurate on deep balls, only averaging 3.6 yards per attempt despite an Average Depth of Target of 7.9 yards. Per PFF, Young only completed 2-of-10 balls thrown more than 10 yards in the air.

If Young is going to be able to be better against the Saints on Monday Night, it’ll start with better deep ball accuracy. If the Saints have to take his deep ball seriously, there’ll be more opportunities in the short to intermediate routes and there won’t be a safety to pick him off twice. If Young can find a credible deep ball, he’ll be better. If not, it’ll be a long game against a Saints D that was 4^th in defensive Success Rate in Week 1.

Week 1 stats: 20-of-38 (52.6%), 146 pass yards, TD, 2 INT; 3 att, 17 rush yards

Texans QB CJ Stroud

25th in EPA and Success Rate, Stroud was similarly just not very good in his first game in the pros. His playcalling didn’t help, with just over 70% of his throws either behind the line of scrimmage or within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Without many weapons, Houston decided to shield Stroud in Week 1 against the Ravens’ elite defense.

Whether they’ll let Stroud do more against Indianapolis is unclear. The Colts were 9th in EPA per play defensively and 27th in Defensive Success Rate, which makes sense for a defense that created a touchdown. How good the Colts actually are is somewhat unclear, especially considering the high expectations Jacksonville has.

Stroud has to be better in Week 2 than he was against Baltimore. If he can’t be trusted to do more than screen passes and short throws, then Texans fans should start to worry.

Week 1 stats: 28-of-44 (63.6%), 242 pass yards; 3 att, 20 rush yards

Colts QB Anthony Richardson

Richardson was the revelation of Week 1, with the high upside rookie showing exactly why he was drafted. 13^th by Dropback EPA and Success Rate, Richardson showed the upside that got him highly drafted in the first place. Richardson did have a lower ADoT of 5.3, but his concern has been whether he can manage a game, not the upside. Limiting his mistakes was key.

Especially in the absence of a running game – Richardson was the leading rusher – Richardson’s performance was impressive. Getting Jonathon Taylor back, if they choose to, will be immensely helpful for the season. His Offensive Rookie Of The Year odds are valuable, given the time split Robinson is in, and I’ve bet him accordingly.

For Week 2, the Texans defense looks decent on paper, 18^th by EPA and 14^th by Success Rate. The problem is, if you filter out garbage time, they jump to 23^rd and 27^th respectively. The Ravens moved the ball at will until they had a sufficient lead, and the Colts should be able to slice the Texans apart in Week 2.

Week 1 stats: 24-of-37 (64.9%), 223 pass yards, TD, INT; 10 att, 40 rush yards, TD

NFL Offensive Rookie of The Year Rankings

Here’s how I would vote on this award after Week 1. In my mind, there is a gap from three to four. Nacua had a great debut, but if Cooper Kupp comes back, that will eat up some of those Week 1 targets significantly.