NFL Rookie Of The Year Odds: CJ Stroud The Last Hope For A QB To Win

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw on October 11, 2023
nfl rookie of the year

Week 5 of the season saw another couple of big shakeups in NFL Rookie of the Year odds. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is now out with a shoulder injury, while explosive Dolphins running back DeVon Achane suffered a knee injury. With Texans QB CJ Stroud taking a loss in Week 5, and Bryce Young still struggling, the race at the top of OROY odds boards at the best betting sites is in flux.

Let’s dive into the current odds at the best new sports betting sites and my NFL Rookie of the Year rankings after the first five weeks of the season.

NFL Rookie of the Year Odds

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Rookie of the Year Odds: Week 5 Takeaways

Injuries are probably the biggest takeaway of the week because of what it does to NFL Rookie of Year odds. Richardson is probably out of the race, given that he’s on IR and will miss a minimum of four weeks. With the fact that this is a reasonably deep Rookie class, it’ll be almost impossible for Richardson to win this award.

Achane was rising but is now also likely a bad bet with his injury. Even if he comes back and takes hold of the Dolphins backfield, it’s unlikely he’ll be significant enough to overcome the fact that Bijan Robinson can boast better counting stats if he plays more games.

Puka Nacua still had a good week in Cooper Kupp’s first game back, but a 7-71-1 line is still a slight step back from the rookie WR’s previously huge target volume, proving that Kupp’s return will eat into his upside.

CJ Stroud was mostly ineffectual in only putting up 19 points in a loss on Sunday. Nevertheless, he broke another rookie QB record – most pass attempts to start a career without an interception.

On the other side of that game, Bijan Robinson’s 46 yards rushing didn’t exactly halt his sliding odds.

The winner of a stagnant week ends up being Stroud, mainly because inertia helps favorites. Of the other two non-longshot contenders, Robinson seems like Stroud’s biggest threat at this point.

Week 5 Rookie QB Matchups

Texans QB CJ Stroud ()

Stroud was non-descript against Atlanta, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing against the Falcons D. Ranked 9th by Success Rate against the pass. Stroud not being able to excel shouldn’t be that big of an issue for the future.

This week doesn’t look great for Stroud either, against the Saints’ sixth-ranked EPA Defense against the pass. With a tough matchup, this will be a tough test for Stroud. If he can put up even good numbers and get the win at home, the Rookie Of The Year race will be in a vice grip.

That said if you’re looking to bet Stroud to be Rookie Of The Year, wait a week. The chance Stroud gets picked apart by the Saints D, and his price gets longer makes waiting potentially profitable.

Panthers QB Bryce Young ()

Young somewhat improved against the Lions, managing to throw three TD passes in a loss. That said, the Panthers were in garbage time for two of those. So it’s not that inspiring. The two interceptions weren’t even on deep shots or plays that can be excused as worthwhile risks.

Against the Dolphins as nearly two touchdown underdogs, Young will likely get all the garbage time he could ask for. Unless and until he actually shows anything in competitive game time, then his status as a decent bet to be a historical bust remains the same.

He remains a non-factor in NFL Rookie of the Year handicapping at this point.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson ()

Richardson’s Grade 3 AC joint sprain has landed him on Injured Reserve. Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Tuesday the team does not have a timetable for his return at present. Richardson’s chances of being a contender for Rookie Of The Year are kaput.

Indianapolis fans won’t feel much better about the fact that Gardner Minshew won them the game on Sunday, but given they are 3-2, it’s possible Richardson can come back into a playoff push.

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Offensive Rookie Of The Year Rankings

As always, this Rookie Of The Year ballot is not a predictive exercise. This is where they’d be right now, not where I think they will be at the end of the season. Given the injuries to Achane and Richardson, this list will certainly not reflect thinking later on in the year.

  1. Texans QB CJ Stroud
  2. Rams WR Puka Nacua
  3. Colts QB Anthony Richardson (injured)
  4. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
  5. Dolphins RB DeVon Achane (injured)

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

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