NFL Rookie Of The Year Odds: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson No Longer The Favorite

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on October 3, 2023

Week 4 of the NFL saw all three of the rookie quarterbacks back on the field and saw contrasting fortunes for all three. With Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud excelling in a dominant win, Colts QB Anthony Richardson showing both his promise and his flaws and Bryce Young playing badly again, we’re starting to see who these QBs are in year one. Plus, a walk-off TD catch further showed Puka Nacua is for real in the NFL Rookie of the Year race. NFL Week 5 odds now show a shakeup at the top of this market.

Let’s dive into the current odds at the best new sports betting sites, as well as my NFL Rookie of the Year rankings after the first month of the season.

NFL Rookie of the Year Odds

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Rookie of the Year Odds: Week 4 Takeaways

We have a new favorite for the first time since NFL OROY odds opened. Bijan Robinson has been usurped by CJ Stroud.

Week 4 was a step up in rookie performance, but not much of one. Bryce Young still sucks, Anthony Richardson played poorly for three quarters, and neither Zay Flowers nor De’Von Achane did much. However, Bijan Robinson broke 100 yards in London, and CJ Stroud broke 300 yards in a beat down of Pittsburgh.

The problem for Robinson is that while his usage is increasing, Stroud and Richardson are the architects of their success in a way he isn’t. He is stuck in an offense that is deeply inefficient, and he will be increasingly irrelevant to this discussion, given there are two QBs who are playing well.

Nacua’s a nice story but a complete fade at his current price. If Cooper Kupp returns and stays healthy, his status as the only halfway decent Rams receiver falls apart. The fact that his receptions have gone from 25 in the first two games to 14 in the last two also suggests the league is catching on to him.

Given all the Stroud hype and that Richardson’s furious comeback in Week 4 came up short, this is an excellent time to get in on Richardson. If Indianapolis wins on Richardson’s good play next week and Stroud struggles against Atlanta, these markets could completely flip in a week (as they did this past week). This market is extremely reactive.

Week 5 Rookie QB Matchups

Panthers QB Bryce Young ()

Young’s stat line in Week 4 – 25-of-34 passing without an INT – would be viewed as a positive for a rookie in the throwback days of the NFL. Now, it’s appropriately seen as a sign of his uninspiring performance. Young has been unable to show any of the promise of his two rookie QB counterparts.

Young failed to lead his team to an offensive touchdown in Week 4, which is unacceptable. With Frank Reich as his coach, this isn’t a Trevor Lawrence situation where there’s a plausible fall guy. Young has been a disaster to start his career.

He’s a non-factor at this point in NFL Rookie of the Year handicapping until further notice.

Texans QB CJ Stroud ()

Stroud’s Week 4 is a perfect example of what Young hasn’t shown yet. Despite only completing 16 passes, 4 different Wide Receivers saw 20+ yard pass plays, including a 52 yard shot to Nico Collins. Stroud showed the upside that got him a Top 2 pick by attempting to make plays. More bluntly, the 14 incompletions are a good sign, counterintuitively.

For the Texans, their 2-2 record seems at first blush a tad charitable, but they’re 16th in Offensive EPA and 15th Defensively. Stroud has turned this offense into something respectable, which is all that’s reasonable to expect as a rookie.

In Week 5, Stroud and co. head to Atlanta, where Houston pretty clearly has a QB advantage. If Stroud can keep up the play that has him 5th in Dropback EPA the last two weeks, then Houston could have a winning record, somehow.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson ()

Richardson’s game had something for everyone’s pre-draft Richardson evaluation. A 37% Completion% and some bad throws were emblematic of the Florida days for Richardson, but so was the 23 point flurry to tie the game. Richardson showed both his downside and his immense talent in Week 4.

Despite the fact that Richardson played badly for stretches of the game, the raw talent is there, and the fact that Indianapolis has their 1st Round Pick this year means there’s no real concern about the fact they lost. Richardson’s gonna have some more difficult stretches of game, including possibly this week against the Titans. But if he keeps showing this amount of talent, Colts fans will be rightly very excited.

Offensive Rookie Of The Year Rankings

As always, this Rookie Of The Year ballot is not a predictive exercise. This is where they’d be right now, not where I think they will be at the end of the season.