The NFL Draft Is Over; Let’s Compare Burrow, Tua And The Rest Of The Rookie Betting Props

Posted By Nate Weitzer on April 27, 2020

The most anticipated NFL Draft in history is over and sports fans can turn their attention towards the far off NFL season to consider how each rookie might fit with their new teams.

Oddsmakers are wasting no time preparing the market for rookies with markets available for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, as well as individual propositions for key rookie WRs, QB Joe Burrow, and DE Chase Young.

Here is a breakdown of the market with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Rookie betting odds: offense

Offensive ROY
Passing Yards
Passing TDs
Receiving Yards

Game
12/30/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Joe Burrow
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+250
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+250
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
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+550
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+800
Tua Tagovailoa
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+700
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+800
Jonathan Taylor
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+1000
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+950
D'Andre Swift
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+1200
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+900
Jerry Jeudy
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+1400
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+1300
JK Dobbins
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+1600
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+1600
Justin Herbert
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+1600
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+2000
CeeDee Lamb
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+1800
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+1500
Henry Ruggs
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+1800
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+1800
Cam Akers
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+2000
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+2000
Jalen Reagor
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+2000
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+2800

Game
09/10/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Joe Burrow
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3850.5
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3800.5

Game
09/10/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Joe Burrow
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21.5
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22.5

Game
09/10/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Jerry Jeudy
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850.5
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850.5
Henry Ruggs
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800.5
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740.5
Justin Jefferson
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800.5
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725.5
Jalen Reagor
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800.5
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700.5
Ceedee Lamb
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750.5
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799.5

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Joe Burrow (+250): Clearly, Burrow is going to have ample opportunities to shine right away and we’ll be even more sure of his role if the Bengals cut Andy Dalton. But will he be in the spotlight? Or thrown into the fire? The Bengals finished 29th in points per drive with the fifth-most 3-and-outs per drive and fifth-most sacks allowed (50) last year. Burrow was surrounded by so much talent at LSU that it’s hard to imagine him making a smooth transition on one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+800): The last pick in the first round is in the complete opposite position as his former teammate, Burrow. Edwards-Helaire figures to slot in as a third-down back for an explosive Chiefs offense that could use him on early downs as well. Pat Mahomes reportedly asked Chiefs GM Brett Veach to take the LSU product and that bodes well for his usage out of the gate.

Tua Tagovailoa (+800): While he’s healthy, we’re not sure if Tua is going to start in Week 1 for the Dolphins. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a perfect “bridge” QB, who could show the rookie the ropes during the first half or the entire season. If Tua doesn’t become the starter by Week 4 or 5, it’s hard to imagine him winning this hardware.

D’Andre Swift (+900): The Lions were lucky to get the talented Georgia product in the second round, but Swift will still have to compete for snaps with Kerryon Johnson behind a shaky offensive line. He has the talent to overcome those odds and is worth a flier at DK Sportsbook, where his odds sit at +1200.

Jonathan Taylor (+950): Remember when the Colts rolled with Jonathan Williams as a workhorse back after Marlon Mack went down with injury? That could be Taylor this year. The steady Wisconsin product can thrive in this offense if something happens to Mack.

Jerry Jeudy (+1300): The Broncos nabbed a pair of talented WRs in Jeudy and KJ Hamler, but it’s Jeudy who could become a top WR for Drew Lock. The Alabama product averaged 17.2 yards per reception and is an elite threat after the catch.

CeeDee Lamb (+1500): If Amari Cooper draws a ton of attention on the other side of the field, Lamb could make defenses pay. The Cowboys need a slot presence with Randall Cobb gone and Lamb could flirt with some gaudy catch numbers if he’s thrust into that role.

Justin Herbert (+2000): The Chargers took Herbert No. 6 overall, but he’s almost certainly going to back up Tyrod Taylor to start the year. He’s a longshot to win any awards and his +1400 odds at DK are a bit misguided.

Joe Burrow betting props

Passing Yards (3,850.5/3,800.5)

Burrow became a monster during his second season at LSU, passing for 5,671 yards with a 76.3% completion rate over 15 games. Of course, he was surrounded by talent on a championship roster and now he joins a Bengals team that allowed the fifth-most sacks (50) and finished 28th in DVOA pass offense last year. Cincy apparently plans to use the franchise tag on A.J. Green, but will Burrow’s top WR be happy with that designation on a struggling team? If he has a disgruntled WR1, limited protection, and limited weapons over the middle of the field, Burrow could struggle.

No rookie QBs hit this mark last year with Kyler Murray (3,722 passing yards) winning Offensive ROY. Andy Dalton did throw for 3,494 yards over 13 starts for Cincy last year, but this seems like an exploitable prop with the Under looking tempting at either sportsbook.

Passing Touchdowns (21.5/22.5)

Andy Dalton only managed 16 TD passes over 13 games last season and A.J. Green’s absence certainly played a role in that lack of production. But the Bengals pass offense isn’t really built for the red zone, where the team finished 30th in TD conversion rate and 31st in points (4.19) per trip. Burrow excels on deep throws that require touch, but he might not be ready to read defenses and throw in quick lasers in the tight areas of the red zone.

Receiver betting props

Jerry Jeudy receiving yards (850.5)

With unbelievable quickness and escapability off the line of scrimmage, Jeudy could quickly become the go-to receiver for the Broncos on third downs. Drew Lock was very accurate with a 64% completion rate over 5 starts last year and he doesn’t have a WR to work the middle of the field like Jeudy could. Noah Fant is a talented TE and Courtland Sutton is a downfield threat, but Jeudy could flirt with 100 targets this year and that’s why his receiving prop is so high.

Henry Ruggs receiving yards (800.5/740.5)

Ruggs was the first of the three Alabama receivers off the board in this draft and must be a favorite of Jon Gruden’s. He will compete for targets and snaps with Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow this season and neither of those WRs even topped 651 receiving yards last year. Tight end Darren Waller led the Raiders passing offense and that certainly factors into why they took a WR with the No. 12 overall pick. Ruggs will have chances to break off chunk plays and the weather is certainly going to be fine in all Las Vegas home games, but we’d shy away from his prop at 800 yards and instead target the 740.5 number or consider going Under 4.5 receiving TDs for the rookie.

Justin Jefferson receiving yards (800.5/725.5)

Jefferson figures to slot right into a starting role after the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs for the draft pick they used on the LSU product. He led the champion Tigers with 54 grabs for 875 yards (16.2 yards per reception) last season and scored 6 touchdowns. While his receiving TD prop (5.5 at FanDuel) is a bit too high for our taste, the market on Jefferson’s yardage is a bit soft at FanDuel. It’s worth noting that the Vikings went from a pass-heavy offense to the fourth-most run-heavy team last season, so opportunity could factor into Jefferson’s production.

Jalen Reagor receiving yards (800.5/700.5)

The Eagles liked Reagor enough to take him over Jefferson with the No. 21 overall pick and that bodes well for his workload out of the gates. Yet he joins a very crowded rotation that could start with veterans Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson (if healthy) and includes two elite TEs in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles drafted two more WRs (John Hightower and Quez Watkins) while trading for Marquise Goodwin recently, so Reagor’s prop of 800 yards at DK seems like an exploitable Under to take.

CeeDee Lamb receiving yards (750.5/799.5)

Lamb is an explosive talent who has drawn comparisons to DeAndre Hopkins and he’s joining an offense that finished third in drive success rate and second in yards per drive (39.9) last season. Dak Prescott averaged the most yards above replacement in the NFL last year and Lamb will see plenty of single coverage with Amari Cooper drawing doubles and Ezekiel Elliott drawing stacked boxes. It seems likely a player who averaged 1,097 receiving yards per season in college could top 800 yards in a longer NFL season.

Rookie betting odds: defense

Defensive ROY
Sacks

Game
12/30/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Chase Young
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+200
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+350
Isaiah Simmons
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+500
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+850
Patrick Queen
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+900
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+1700
Kenneth Murray
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+1100
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+2100
Jeff Okudah
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+1600
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+2100
K'Lavon Chaisson
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+2000
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+3100
Willie Gay
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+2000
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+2600
Derrick Brown
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+2500
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+2500
Javon Kinlaw
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+2500
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+2600

Game
09/10/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Chase Young
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8.5

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Chase Young (+350): Billed as a can’t-miss prospect with undeniable pass-rushing ability, Young should do just fine for a Washington team that is slightly above average defensively. However, if the Redskins offense fails to play from ahead much this season, he might not have many chances to rush the passer. That would be the biggest concern for a player who is all the way up to +200 odds at DK.

Isaiah Simmons (+850): Simmons is also getting better odds at FD considering he’s at +500 at DK Sportsbook. The Clemson product joins a weak Cardinals defense that has a bad need at LB. He should see plenty of opportunities with Chandler Jones drawing attention at the edge, so perhaps he can pile up sacks and a few forced fumbles to supplement his campaign.

A.J. Epenesa (+1300): While he’s a great player, Epenesa could get lost in a Bills defensive line rotation that is as deep as any in the league. He’ll have plenty of chances to work in single coverage, but his efforts might not stand out as much. Oddsmakers at DK confirm as much by listing Epenesa with +3300 odds.

Patrick Queen (+1700): Queen is getting great odds at FD considering he’s the third favorite at +900 at DK. The Ravens have a long history of nailing LB draft picks dating back to Ray Lewis and Queen could thrive behind an excellent defensive line that will open up lanes.

Jeff Okudah (+2100): As good as Okudah may be, it could be difficult for a CB to win this award. The Lions are expecting him to be a shutdown force out of the gates and he could grab enough headlines if he performs like a top 10 corner in his rookie campaign.

Kenneth Murray (+2100): The Chargers wanted Murray badly enough to trade up and take the Patriots No. 23 overall selection. Murray piled up 102 tackles during his final season at Oklahoma and has plenty of potential as a LB with NFL-caliber speed. Murray is also getting value at FD considering he’s listed at +1100 at DK.

Chase Young prop

Sacks (8.5)

Young is heavily favored to win Defensive Rookie of the Year with +200 odds at DK Sportsbook and +350 odds at FanDuel. DraftKings has a market for his sack totals with a relatively low prop set at 8.5 sacks. For perspective, 25 players recorded 9 or more sacks last year with Shaq Barrett posting a league-high 19.5 sacks. Jevon Kearse holds the record for sacks by a rookie with 14.5 in 1999. Washington had four players with over 8.5 sacks last year and Montez Sweat recorded 7 as a rookie last year for the Redskins. This is a relatively safe bet considering Young’s skill set and that’s why the odds sit at -134 at DK.

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