NFL Prop Bets: Possible Picks For 2024 Playoff Specials Like Most Yards & Touchdowns
When betting on the NFL playoffs, most of the discussion naturally centers around week-to-week sportsbook spreads, totals, and futures like Super Bowl odds. However, many of the best betting sites celebrate the festive occasion with special NFL prop bets. These include fun playoff-long props like betting on who will accumulate the most passing yards, rushing yards, etc.
We’ll look at these markets, with numbers courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. For each, I’ll identify one favorite and one longshot I think might have value. The prop tiles below each player’s write-up will feature the best prices for any NFL playoff props involving that player.
NFL Playoff Props: General Thoughts And Strategy
The key factor that bettors have to remember is that each bet is essentially a parlay: the player will perform well statistically AND his team will advance far into the playoffs. A huge statistical game does little good if the player’s team bows out early.
For instance, think back to the 2021-22 playoffs. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes produced incredible stat lines in every game they played. But even Mahomes’ 1,057 yards were surpassed by both Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford because each played an extra game. Mahomes’ rate stats dwarfed theirs, but an extra game is generally king.
Of course, byes also factor into this equation. While Christian McCaffrey still stands as a strong favorite to lead in rushing, if the 49ers were playing in the wild card round, he’d probably be favored over the field instead of merely around +200.
So, try to identify a player you think the market is underrating who also plays for a team the market is underrating. Everybody knows Stafford is likely to produce a big stat line against the Lions indoors with a total of . But you have to like his chances to advance past that round in order to bet him as the top passer at +1800.
NFL Prop Bets: Possible Playoff Passing Leaders
He had his first playoff experience cut short by a devastating injury, but Purdy is in a good position to pile up some stats this time around. The 49ers are very strong favorites to emerge from the NFC (), so he’s likely to be even on games with anyone from his own conference.
If the Ravens win the AFC as they’re favored to do (), then Purdy will be on equal footing with everyone.
Equal footing means it will come down to rate stats. In rate stats, Purdy has been king. His 9.6 YPA leads the NFL by a mile. The difference between Purdy and second place (Tua Tagovailoa) is equivalent to the distance between second and 20th. In raw yardage totals per game, Purdy also ranks fifth among playoff QBs despite the 49ers taking their proverbial feet off the pedal in several regular-season blowouts.
As you may have gathered from this prose, I like Purdy more in yardage markets than touchdowns. The 49ers have a strong tendency to hand to Christian McCaffrey near the end zone, and the price is a bit better on yardage (+600 to +450).
How about the aforementioned Stafford? On a per-game basis, Stafford has been about as productive as Purdy in terms of yards per game, trailing by a mere 3. He also has a few more factors going for him as well.
He should be playing in favorable conditions most of the way. He obviously gets to play in a dome to kick things off, and in a game with the highest total of the weekend to boot. In the second round, while San Francisco has a solid defense, at least weather concerns won’t slow him down. A presumptive third-round matchup against the Cowboys would also be tailor-made for offense.
And the Rams aren’t very big underdogs against the Lions. The works out to about a 39% chance of advancing after accounting for the vig.
I’m skeptical that the Rams will emerge from that game. Bettors who feel differently can consider Stafford.
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NFL Prop Bets: Possible Playoff Rushing Leaders
Allen is an odd case since he’s the second favorite in the touchdown department but a longshot in the yardage one. So, he doesn’t fit cleanly into either category, but I’m focusing on the touchdowns here. Given that Allen averaged just 30 yards rushing per game, it’s tough to imagine him pacing the playoffs, even if he’s been more active as a runner in recent weeks.
Allen’s 15 rushing scores during the season tied for second-most, along with Jalen Hurts. Believe it or not, that ranked one ahead of McCaffrey (14).
Raheem Mostert led with 18, but he’s injured, in a timeshare, and an underdog to even see a second game. And while Hurts’ team is a slight favorite to advance (), the Eagles are much less likely than the Bills to make a deep run.
Speaking of the Eagles, they also play a role here. Specifically, the Bills look to have co-opted the push play as their go-to in very short yardage. It failed in a high-leverage spot against the Dolphins. But overall, Buffalo has been quite successful with it, and the usage helped Allen pile up 8 TDs in the team’s final six games.
One thing working against Allen is a low total () against the Steelers. High winds are in the NFL weather report. However, after that game, they’d likely play a Chiefs defense that has been gashed by the run all year (bottom six in rush defense DVOA and EPA/play).
Jackson dialed down the use of his legs this year. His 5.5 YPC was the worst he’s posted since his rookie year. Ditto his 51.3 rush YPG, down more than 10 yards from each of the prior four seasons.
However, that 5.5 YPC still ranked tops of anyone not named De’Von Achane. And Achane isn’t likely to pile up a ton of yards or touchdowns for a variety of reasons. The Dolphins are underdogs in any likely AFC playoff matchup (Chiefs, Bills, Ravens is a possible path). And Achane might only have one week of lead-back status before falling back into a timeshare with Mostert.
Jackson makes for an interesting longshot in either department. The Gus Bus has served as the primary goal line vulture, but that could always change in the playoffs, and Edwards still has Justice Hill to worry about.
And it’s certainly possible the Ravens have been saving the use of Jackson’s legs in order to preserve his health. His rushing numbers were still respectable, so if they bump up a bit in high-leverage games and someone upsets the 49ers, Jackson’s probably live as a longshot.
NFL Prop Bets: Possible Playoff RECEIVING Leaders
I almost went with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who appears to be in an amazing spot to pile up numbers with Sam LaPorta out of the way for now and multiple indoor games on tap in any presumptive deep run.
However, the 49ers are just so much more likely to be playing multiple games, and I don’t think people realize what an awesome season Aiyuk has had. He spent much of the year overshadowed by discussion of Purdy and McCaffrey as MVP candidates and Deebo Samuel outshined him down the stretch in several games.
Aiyuk is miles behind Lamb (+185) in the yardage markets, but he shouldn’t be a huge dog to pass him if each plays three times — Aiyuk only trailed by 19 YPG.
Touchdown numbers are closer, and Aiyuk’s seven scores were merely solid, with guys like Tyreek Hill, Lamb and St. Brown well ahead in the double digits. But that market’s going to be pretty wide open in general. It should surprise nobody if Aiyuk runs hot on red-zone chances for a few games in the most efficient offense in the NFL.
Some of Cooper’s season-long numbers don’t stand out much. For instance, while he posted a very solid 83 YPG, he scored just five times.
However, the key here is the emergence of Joe Flacco. Flacco leads the league, passing YPG, and not by a little bit. And since Flacco took the reins, Cooper scored three times in four games before sitting out the final two weeks injured. That included an absurd 265-yard performance against the same Texans that the Browns will play in the Wild Card round indoors.
Cleveland would obviously need to make a run here, but as first-round favorites (), they would only need one upset to get to the magical three-game number that makes a player live to win.
Granted, further opponents would be tough — the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens would all offer stiff resistance in possible winter weather. In that sort of a sample, though, with the volume Flacco is providing and Cooper is seeing, he has a legitimate chance to pace the field in either stat.
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