NFL Wild Card Chiefs Vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets, SGP Promos: Playoff Patrick Mahomes Back?

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
Chiefs Dolphins NFL player props

A Saturday night tilt between the defending champion Chiefs and a Dolphins team looking to make its playoff mark figures to be one of the most thrilling of the weekend. What do NFL player props odds say about this game, and are there any bets that might offer value? Below, we’ll highlight NFL player props and a potential SGP strategy for this contest. NFL player props and same-game parlays are now available at the best betting sites.

Check out our pages covering Chiefs odds and Dolphins odds for more on these teams.

NFL Player Props: Dolphins at Chiefs

NFL playoff odds show the Chiefs as home favorites. The over/under for this game is set at .

Click on the odds in this table to place a bet now.

Potential Dolphins at Chiefs player props

The most interesting thing about this game’s player props is the effect of the NFL weather report. A forecast calling for sub-zero temperatures, fairly strong winds, and possible snow has prop markets significantly depressed. The under received significant sharp action early in the week, dropping the total from 47.5 to 44.

Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions ()

Rice has emerged as arguably the top receiving target on the Chiefs, and he’s in a very good situation to produce a big game here against Miami.

First, he shines as an after-the-catch runner. The Dolphins have been one of the weaker tackling teams this year (22nd in PFF grade), and Rice has a plus matchup anytime he’s in the slot against Kader Kohou. Any short, schemed-up passes he catches have significant YAC potential here.

Second, Miami DC Vic Fangio is one of the pioneers of the two-high scheme. The goal of said scheme is to keep things in front, which should open up the underneath and screen games for Rice and his cohorts. Look for Andy Reid to find touches for Rice that let him attack the two-high shell as essentially a runner.

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Completions ()

The same two-high shell that the Dolphins will employ will encourage Patrick Mahomes to look for his checkdowns. That’s something he’s been only too happy to do for the past couple of years en route to running one of the lowest average depth of targets (aDOT) in the league while maintaining his standing as one of the most effective passers nonetheless.

K.C. is also well set up to lean into the passing game here. Not only is that the team’s natural tendency (highest Pass Rate Over Expectation per Sumer Sports), but the Dolphins have a litany of injuries that will hurt the pass defense.

The pass-rushing corps is threadbare. Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and Andrew Van Ginkel all went out for the year injured. Miami replaced them with a group that would have looked menacing in 2017 (Justin Houston, Melvin Ingram, Bruce Irvin). Adding to the misery is that starting safeties Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott have yet to practice on a short week.

Even in a down season, Mahomes surpassed this number in 11 of 16 starts.

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Potential Dolphins at Chiefs SGP Legs

Outlier weather can create outlier games. Outlier games offer the prime opportunity to cash in via SGP betting. If a bettor can correctly identify that two teams will produce some kind of extreme game, he or she can get some very long odds paid out.

This game matches two proficient offenses and two productive quarterbacks. As such, the game total is still on the higher side despite the dreadful expected weather.

But what if neither team can reliably move the ball, and this becomes a defensive struggle?

Remember, in addition to their defensive injuries, Miami has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle banged up, and that’s pretty much the engine of this entire offense. And the Chiefs have been awful at worst on offense and methodical at best. That is, when they have moved the ball efficiently, it has generally involved slower and longer drives.

A simple same-game parlay of…

  • Under 31.5 points
  • Dolphins +3.5
  • Both quarterbacks under their passing totals

That pays around +1650 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Remember that in a game with very few points scored, Miami is very likely to cover as a short underdog here.

NFL Same-Game Parlay Strategy

When reviewing winning SGP tickets, we can think backward and determine what game-script ideas and correlations went into constructing the parlay. This correlation concept can help construct a bet that makes sense, but it’s worth remembering that picking a negatively correlated outcome along with some positively correlated ones will significantly increase the potential payout.

How To Find SGP Promos

Caesars Sportsbookbet365BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook are among the top sports betting apps that frequently offer Same Game Parlay promotions for NFL playoffs player props. Navigate to the promos section of the app for full details and information on any SGP offerings for Chiefs vs. Dolphins.

NFL Playoffs SGP Odds Boosts

Check back here for the latest odds boosts and promotions.

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