NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 17

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 29, 2022
odds to make NFL playoffs

The stretch run of the NFL season has arrived. Some teams have already moved beyond sweating their playoff chances and are dreaming of Super Bowl runs. Others have shifted their resources to spring’s NFL draft, diving deep on hundreds of prospects and planning for the future. But much of the league is still in the mix when looking at NFL playoff odds. What do odds to make the NFL playoffs have to say about their chances?

Let’s take a look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble, as well as highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.

Miami’s Week 16 loss leaves them jeopardy of dropping out of the last AFC wild card. Meanwhile, that same game, along with a Lions loss, has propelled the Packers to the brink of a playoff spot. The NFC looks like it’s in for a furious finish, having four teams within a half game of the seventh seed.

No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. When looking at seeding, remember seven teams from each conference make the playoffs.

Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs

TeamNo-Vig OddsFootball Outsiders OddsCurrent Best Price
AFC Playoff Picture
4. Jacksonville JaguarsN/A74.5%
5. Baltimore RavensN/A100%OTB
6. LA ChargersN/A100%OTB
7. Miami Dolphins65.6%74.9%
8. New England Patriots12.7%7.9%
9. New York JetsN/A14.6%
10. Tennessee Titans34.4%26.6%
11. Pittsburgh Steelers8.55%1.5%
NFC Playoff Picture
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers*N/A68.3%
5. Dallas CowboysN/A100%OTB
6. New York Giants87.2%91.4%
7. Washington CommandersN/A29.2%
8. Seattle Seahawks21.2%22.1%
9. Detroit Lions21.1%21.6%
10. Green Bay Packers34.4%36.1%
11. Carolina Panthers*N/A27.9%
12. New Orleans Saints4.6%4.3%

*odds to win the NFC South division title

4 Week 17 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances

Dolphins At Patriots

  • Dolphins current seed: 7th
  • Patriots current seed: 8th

Big favorites to make the playoffs in recent weeks, the Dolphins suddenly find themselves in a precarious position after being unable to convert their massive YPP edge over the Pack into a win. A loss here would leave them deadlocked with the Patriots in the standings, though they would appear to have the edge based on third-order tiebreak, “common games.” But, potentially starting a backup QB both here and in Week 18, they could lose out and find themselves looking up any number of teams in the standings.

The Patriots have an unfortunate Week 18 date in Buffalo. But, they can worry about that next week. For now, a loss ends their playoff hopes. They caught a break with Tua Tagovailoa potentially missing this game, but Teddy Bridgewater will not represent a ticket to a free win either.

Panthers At Buccaneers

  • Panthers current seed: 11th
  • Buccaneers current seed: 4th

The NFC South may come down to this pillow fight. If the Panthers win, they’ll have an identical 7-9 record with the Buccaneers and a 2-0 season sweep in hand for the tiebreak. They may still need another win in Week 18 but it depends on whether the Bucs win in Atlanta — if they do, the Panthers would need to beat the Saints as well.

A Bucs win would move them to 8-8 and render the final week meaningless. Both the Panthers and Saints would be locked out of catching them. Bettors with NFC South futures would cash their tickets.

Jets At Seahawks

  • Jets current seed: 9th
  • Seahawks current seed: 8th

The Jets continue to sink, but luckily for them, much of their competition has sunk with them. Now, they play in the Geno Smith Bowl, but the Seahawks are arguably falling off even worse. Down on tiebreak to the Patriots and still needing to pass Miami, the Jets can’t afford another loss. The schedule has thankfully unfolded beautifully for the Jets as they can still hand Miami an L in Week 18 that would also secure a season sweep. The Patriots having to face the Bills in Buffalo in Week 18 also sets up nicely, so Jets hopes somehow aren’t close to dead despite the freefall.

Seattle almost has to win out as well, particularly with the Lions and Packers solidly favored this week and then facing each other in Week 18. Very likely, one of those teams will go 2-0, meaning Seattle probably needs to go 2-0 as well to close out. All three teams are 7-8 with the Seahawks currently up on three-way tiebreak. Ideally for the Seahawks, the Lions would win in Week 18 (although a tie would be the most desirable outcome), since Seattle beat them head to head.

Vikings At Packers

  • Vikings current seed: 2nd
  • Packers current seed: 10th

The Vikings have only seeding in play. Technically, the top seed remains attainable, though they likely need a four-game parlays of finishing 2-0 while the Eagles finish 0-2. On the other side, they’re a game up on the 49ers, but slipping up here would allow the 49ers to most likely pass them up on conference wins tiebreak. That means a potential second round road game in which they’d be huge underdogs.

The Packers most likely need to win out to get a playoff spot. Since they’re only a half game back, there are still scenarios where they could lose here and get in. But, the clearest path involves two Packers wins and one loss by the Commanders. The Commanders have to play the Cowboys in Week 18 but it remains to be seen if the Cowboys will have anything to fight for at that point.

Best of luck betting the odds to make NFL playoffs.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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