NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 16

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 22, 2022
odds to make nfl playoffs

The stretch run of the NFL season has arrived. Some teams have already moved beyond sweating their playoff chances and are dreaming of Super Bowl runs. Others have shifted their resources to spring’s NFL draft, diving deep on hundreds of prospects and planning for the future. But much of the league is still in the mix when looking at NFL playoff odds. What do odds to make the NFL playoffs have to say about their chances?

Let’s take a look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble, as well as highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.

Last week, the Jaguars and Lions continued their pushes up the standings. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers‘ loss keeps the door cracked for the entire NFC South.

No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. When looking at seeding, remember seven teams from each conference make the playoffs.

Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs

TeamNo-Vig OddsFootball Outsiders OddsCurrent Best Price
AFC Playoff Picture
4. Tennessee TitansN/A59.6%
5. Baltimore RavensN/A96.5%OTB
6. LA Chargers86.4%80.1%
7. Miami Dolphins71.2%76.9%
8. New England Patriots14.9%16.6%
9. New York Jets19.1%25.2%
10. Jacksonville JaguarsOTB40.7%
NFC Playoff Picture
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers76.2%78.6%
5. Dallas CowboysN/A100%OTB
6. New York Giants84.1%89.7%
7. Washington Commanders29.5%25.6%
8. Seattle Seahawks31.8%33.1%
9. Detroit Lions42.6%43.4%
10. Green Bay Packers11.9%8.2%
11. Carolina Panthers16%10%
12. New Orleans Saints6.3%2.9
13. Atlanta Falcons4.5%8.6%

3 Week 16 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances

Jaguars At Jets

  • Jaguars current seed: 10th
  • Jets current seed: 9th

The Jets took a tough loss, blowing it late against the Lions. However the Patriots‘ own collapse kept them in the hunt — they can’t really afford to fall a game back since the Pats already have the tiebreaker. The Jets’ final game against the Dolphins looks like a must-win, but they need to stay a game back for that to matter.

Jacksonville is in a similar situation chasing the Titans. They must stay within a game so that simply winning at home the final week would push them past the Titans via tiebreak. With the Titans actually favored this week, that means the Jags probably need to win here.

Lions At Panthers

  • Lions current seed: 9th
  • Panthers current seed: 11th

This week represents a big chance for the Lions because the Seahawks are such huge underdogs against the Chiefs. Seattle has the tiebreak via head to head, but if they lose and the Lions win, the Lions will be at worst half a game behind the Commanders with the tiebreak in hand. Same story against the Giants, although the Giants are a further game up the standings.

Carolina somehow controls its own destiny despite a 5-9 record. The Panthers have basically no hope in the wild card, but they could still catch the Bucs. The Bucs get a layup this week facing Trace McSorley and the Cardinals, so the Panthers would be well-advised to win this one at home.

Packers At Dolphins

  • Packers current seed: 10th
  • Dolphins current seed: 7th

The Packers are still clinging to a shred of wild card hope but may need to win out to make it happen. Still, they aren’t huge underdogs here, so they could potentially keep it rolling, having already won two straight.

The Dolphins are in pretty good shape, currently in playoff position and up a game with the tiebreak on New England. However, they still play the Pats next week and the Jets the week after, giving the closest trailing teams the chance to close ground. Losing this one would put them in some peril, as they’d be relying on the tiebreak at that point if the Jets and/or Patriots won.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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