NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 15

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 14, 2022
NFL playoff odds

The stretch run of the NFL season has arrived. Some teams have already moved beyond sweating their playoff chances and are dreaming of Super Bowl runs. Others have shifted their resources to spring’s NFL draft, diving deep on hundreds of prospects and planning for the future. But much of the league is still in the mix when looking at NFL playoff odds. What do odds to make the NFL playoffs have to say about their chances?

Let’s take a look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble, as well as highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.

After last week, the Raiders, Steelers and Browns have basically fallen out of the AFC race. In the NFC, the race for the final couple of spots has actually opened up even more.

No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. Teams in the hunt with at least five wins are listed in the NFC, six in the AFC. When looking at seeding, remember seven teams from each conference make the playoffs.

Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs

TeamNo-Vig OddsFootball Outsiders OddsCurrent Best Price
AFC Playoff Picture
4. Tennessee Titans80.9%87.2%
5. Cincinnati Bengals98.0%97.5%
6. Miami Dolphins70.5%76.9%
7. New England PatriotsN/A38.5%
8. LA Chargers63.4%45%
9. New York Jets37.9%40.5%
10. Jacksonville Jaguars21.4%13.4%
NFC Playoff Picture
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers71.2%70.8%
5. Dallas CowboysN/A100%OTB
6. Washington Commanders65.6%67.3%
7. New York Giants48.9%50.3%
8. Seattle Seahawks51.1%56.9%
9. Detroit Lions23.8%20.7%
10. Green Bay Packers9.6%4.3%
11. Carolina Panthers23.8%15.3%
12. Atlanta Falcons10.6%13.9%

3 Week 15 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances

Lions At Jets

  • Lions current seed: 9th
  • Jets current seed: 9th

Loser leaves town? This might be such a game, with both teams hanging around at the edge of the playoff race. The Lions can afford at most one loss, probably. Thankfully for them, the schedule is easy, ranking 29th according to Tankathon. However, this game is going to be tough, bringing the toughest defense they’ve faced in some time (all season?). And Jared Goff must play outside in the cold where he’s been less effective.

The Jets are currently in a three-way tie for the last playoff spot with the Patriots and Chargers. Unfortunately, both teams have tiebreakers on them, though that could still change in the case of the Chargers. Regardless, they must make up ground.

Titans At Chargers

  • Titans current seed: 4th
  • Chargers current seed: 8th

One would think based on seeding the Titans might be safe, but one would be mistaken. Their odds to win the AFC South are down to . While that’s admittedly still a hefty chance, they have dropped three straight and still must play the Jaguars on the road. Certainly, if they get caught by Jacksonville, they won’t be getting a Wild Card berth. A loss here would keep them squarely in danger of letting it slip away.

The Chargers do have a cakewalk schedule aside from this game. But, their tiebreaker situation would become problematic with a loss. They’d drop to 5-5 in conference games, even with the Jets and at least a half game behind the Pats even if they lose this week.

Giants At Commanders

  • Giants current seed: 7th
  • Commanders current seed: 6th

These teams already played to a tie and have even records. Therefore, whoever wins this game will not only grab a one-game cushion in the standings, they’d lock in the tiebreak for additional comfort. Both teams need to hold off the Lions and Seahawks. And both play top-five most difficult schedules the rest of the way. Each needs every win it can get, meaning this game looms large in both teams’ fortunes.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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