NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 14

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 9, 2022
NFL playoff odds

The stretch run of the NFL season has arrived. Some teams have already moved beyond sweating their playoff chances and are dreaming of Super Bowl runs. Others have shifted their resources to spring’s NFL draft, diving deep on hundreds of prospects and planning for the future. But much of the league is still in the mix when looking at odds to make the playoffs. What do NFL playoff odds have to say about their chances?

Let’s take a look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble, as well as highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.

No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. Teams in the hunt with at least five wins are listed. When looking at seeding, remember seven teams from each conference make the playoffs.

NFL Playoff Odds, Fringe Teams

TeamNo-Vig OddsFootball Outsiders OddsCurrent Best Price
Seattle Seahawks73.1%81.4%
Washington Commanders60.4%58.2%
New York Giants52.1%53.3%
New York Jets48.9%56.7%
LA Chargers38.1%17.3%
New England Patriots25.4%34.1%
Cleveland Browns12.6%4.3%
Las Vegas Raiders5.6%TBD
Detroit Lions11.9%10%
Pittsburgh Steelers10.1%6.1%
Green Bay Packers7.4%2.1%
Atlanta Falcons8%8.6%
  • Odds as of Dec. 8

3 Week 14 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances

Vikings At Lions

  • Vikings current seed: 2nd
  • Lions current seed: 9th

The Vikings are all but in, although technically the Lions can still wrest the division from them. That requires a 10-outcome parlay of Vikings losses plus Lions wins, though the Lions can check off two of those with a win here.

No, the Lions’ more realistic path is via Wild Card, but they aren’t out of it thanks to four wins in their past five. They’re rooting for Giants and Seahawks losses.

Dolphins At Chargers

  • Dolphins current seed: 6th
  • Chargers current seed: 9th

For now, the Dolphins have a pretty secure path to the playoffs. They have a two-game cushion on eighth place and they still have a chance to take prime position to win the division if they can beat the Bills next week in Buffalo. If they drop this one, that does change, though.

The Chargers are more desperate. They’re still sitting behind the Patriots based on conference winning percentage tiebreaker. And the Jets have a game up on them. The good news: they have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule according to Tankathon.

Patriots At Cardinals

  • Patriots current seed: 8th
  • Cardinals current seed: 12th

It’s all but over for the Cardinals, although they do still remain mathematically alive.

So, this leverage is all about the Patriots, who are right on the bubble. As mentioned above, they’re up on tiebreak against the Chargers but down a game to the Jets. They did sweep the Jets, which would lift them in the event they can make a game up by season’s end. However, they have to lock in and play their best, because they have the fourth-hardest schedule remaining. Their “easy” games are against the Raiders and Cardinals, far from freebies. This game is critical for their playoff hopes.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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