AFC Championship Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Written By Brett Gibbons on January 29, 2023
Bengals vs. Chiefs odds

The Cincinnati Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a hotly anticipated matchup in the AFC Championship Game. The game kicks Sunday afternoon at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Bengals vs. Chiefs odds line the game Chiefs at home and Bengals on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at points.

In this article we break down everything you need to know before betting the Bengals at Chiefs AFC Championship odds, props, and injuries. We’ll also look at team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

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Bengals At Chiefs Player Props

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Bengals At Chiefs Betting News & Angles


Harrison Butker's game-winning field goal and Patrick Mahomes' three touchdown passes lift the Chiefs (+1.5) over the Eagles, 38-35, to win Super Bowl 57. Mahomes wins his second Super Bowl in his third attempt.

  • Chiefs +1.5
  • Over 51.5
  • Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs
  • Isiah Pacheco Over 47.5 rush yards
Author: Brett Gibbons

Harrison Butker's 27-yard FG gives the Chiefs a 38-35 lead with under 10 seconds left in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 57 comes down to a desperation attempt.

Author: Brett Gibbons

Only three times ever has the Super Bowl been decided by a game-winning field goal. Tied at 35 with 90 seconds left, the game appears to be setting up for a walk-off Harrison Butker field goal.

  • Super Bowl V
  • Super Bowl XXXVI
  • Super Bowl XXXVIII
Author: Brett Gibbons

A critical defensive holding penalty by the Eagles gives the Chiefs a brand new set of downs inside the Red Zone. Tied at 35, the Eagles have just one timeout remaining. KC is -3000 moneyline to win the game.

Author: Brett Gibbons

Time's winding down in Super Bowl 57 and Patrick Mahomes– on a high ankle sprain– picked up 26 yards for a huge first down. The Chiefs are inside the Eagles' Red Zone tied at 35. Chiefs are -3.5 (-115) and this game is setting up to be the highest-scoring Super Bowl in history.

  • Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards (-115)

Live odds:

Author: Brett Gibbons

Patrick Mahomes finds Skyy Moore for a TD. The Chiefs take a 35-27 lead in the fourth quarter.

  • Moore anytime TD +800
  • Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs (+170)
Author: Brett Gibbons

Patrick Mahomes finds Kadarius Toney for a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter! Despite the one-point lead, the Chiefs remain +1.5 (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Toney anytime TD +260
  • Over 51.5 points (-110)
  • Chiefs Over 24.5 team points (-110)

The Chiefs are 13-0 straight up when scoring more than 24 points this season.

Author: Brett Gibbons

The Chiefs have the ball with a fresh set of downs trailing the Eagles 27-21 heading into the fourth quarter. The Chiefs closed the quarter out at +2.5 (-105) and +155 moneyline.

Author: Brett Gibbons

Jalen Hurts scrambled for a loss of one– a technical sack– which was awarded to the Chiefs' Khalen Saunders, who pushed him out of bounds. Saunders was listed at +3500 to record the game's first sack.

Author: Brett Gibbons

Isiah Pacheco finds pay dirt on a four-yard TD scamper to cut the Eagles' lead to 24-21. The Chiefs pulled out an impressive first drive of the second half to keep the game from getting out of hand.

  • Pacheco anytime TD +140

Live odds:

Author: Brett Gibbons
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Bengals Vs. Chiefs Weather

Dry conditions (broken clouds) and 11 mph winds are expected at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday (as of 8:12 AM on January 26), with a high temperature of 18 degrees Fahrenheit.

Bengals Vs. Chiefs Injury Report

Cincinnati Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Jonah WilliamsOTKneeOut73.4
Ted KarrasCKneeProbable72
Alex CappaOGAnkleOut69.2
Tre FlowersCBHamstringProbable28.3
Joe BachieLBFootProbable18.1

Kansas City Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Patrick Mahomes IIQBAnkleProbable66.5
Travis KelceTEBackQuestionable52
Willie Gay Jr.LBToeProbable47.1
Mecole HardmanWRPelvisQuestionable39.1
Jerick McKinnonRBAnkleProbable39

Bengals Offense Vs. Chiefs Defense

Bengals OffenseStats (Rank)Chiefs Defense
26.1 (7)Points/Gm21.7 (16)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (1)
360.5 (8)Yards/Gm328.2 (11)
265 (5)Pass Yards/Gm220.9 (18)
95.5 (29)Rush Yards/Gm107.2 (8)
5.5 (11)Yards/Play5.1 (7)
7 (8)Yards/Pass6.1 (6)
3.8 (29)Yards/Rush4.4 (15)
46.1% (3)3rd Down %38.3% (13)
64.9% (5)Red Zone %67.3% (31)
18 (4)Turnovers20 (20)
44 (20)Sacks55 (2)

Chiefs Offense Vs. Bengals Defense

Chiefs OffenseStats (Rank)Bengals Defense
29.2 (1)Points/Gm20.1 (5)
0.5 (1)Points/Play0.3 (1)
413.6 (1)Yards/Gm335.7 (16)
297.8 (1)Pass Yards/Gm229.1 (23)
115.9 (20)Rush Yards/Gm106.6 (7)
6.4 (1)Yards/Play5.4 (15)
7.8 (1)Yards/Pass6.6 (15)
4.7 (8)Yards/Rush4.2 (6)
48.7% (2)3rd Down %39.6% (20)
69.4% (2)Red Zone %52% (9)
23 (17)Turnovers24 (11)
26 (3)Sacks30 (29)

Why The Chiefs Can Cover The Spread

At this point, you’re just picking winners. Playoff games cannot end in a tie, so there’s not a ton of value picking between +1 and a PK or -1 and a PK. However, news surrounding Patrick Mahomes and his ankle have already and will continue to move this line. The Chiefs opened -3 very briefly and the Bengals maxed out at -2.5 before Mahomes was reported as a full participant at practice.

Despite the Chiefs being 0-3 against the Joe Burrow-led Bengals, the market seems to think the Chiefs are the better team with Mahomes in. When fully healthy, KC has the advantage at quarterback, offensive scheme, and arguably on the defensive line. The Bengals have advantages in defensive play calling and at wide receiver.

However, you have to worry about the Chiefs’ rushing defense, particularly inside. (See “Bengals At Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For” below.) The best advice I can give here is to avoid betting the Chiefs on the point spread. Not only are there a bunch of unknowns, despite what reports say, but you’re not betting into the best number. That was KC +2.5 and that’s gone.

Why The Bengals Can Cover The Spread

Again, betting the Bengals to win. Their best number was gone the instant it was posted, so patience is key here. Should this line balloon back to CIN +3 (not likely), go ahead and fire on the Bengals, but don’t settle. My best advice would be to live bet the Bengals should the number hit +3 or better in-play.

But we know how the Bengals win this game, by executing the same game plan they did last week. Hit Mahomes with unpredictable blitzes– something defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is excellent at– and open up rushing lanes on offense. After all, Burrow and the Bengals are 3-0 against Mahomes and the Chiefs.

An even bigger advantage for Cincinnati would be if Mahomes’ mobility is limited. The Bengals have the fourth-highest QB knockdown rate in the NFL (12.2%). As shown against Josh Allen last game, you don’t need to get sacks to affect the way a quarterback plays. A few hits changes the way they hang in the pocket.

Read more about a serious advantage I believe the Bengals have on offense below (“Bengals At Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For”).

Reasons To Bet The Over

Each of the last three matchups between these two teams resulted in 51 points twice and 65 points once. However, you’re battling against Mahomes’ injury. He could come out and be totally fine, in which case over the points here would be a good bet. But if he comes out with limited mobility, you’re going to need a prayer to surpass points.

Despite being brutally cold, there shouldn’t be much weather impact on this game. Both teams are from cold weather environments, so any bump down due to weather is based on assumption.

Reasons To Bet The Under

I hate that every section is prefaced with, “Well watch Mahomes first,” but that’s the hand we’re dealt here. A bet on the under is a bet that Mahomes is playing at less than 100% in the game.

Amarundo is one of the best halftime adjusters in the NFL, not allowing a second-half touchdown until Halloween this year. Rather than betting a full-game under, I’d recommend a second-half under. You could also bet on the second half to be lower-scoring than the first, which oftentimes offers good odds in big games since the assumption is that one team is going to be playing catchup while the other tries to extend their lead.

Not so here. The Bengals’ second half defense is nails while the Bengals offense runs the fourth-slowest pace in the NFL in second halves.

Bengals At Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For

Joe Mixon and Interior Offensive Linemen Vs. Chris Jones

The Bengals’ reserve offensive line was able to blow Buffalo right off the line of scrimmage on the AFC Divisional Round. As a result, Mixon was able to rush for over 100 yards at 5.3 yards per carry. He missed the Week 13 matchup with the Chiefs, but backup Samaje Perine was able to rush for over 100 yards at 5.0 yards per carry in that game.

The Chiefs give up over six yards per carry to inside runs this season. Mixon’s highest yards per carry come right up the middle two-hole (right half of the center). While most of the attention is on the passing game and receivers in this game, Mixon may have the biggest impact.

That is, unless Chris Jones has anything to say about it. His season-high for snaps inside the tackles at defensive tackle came against Cincinnati and for good reason. If we know the Bengals are most effective running the ball up the middle, certainly KC’s scouting department knows that.

However, just because he lines up there doesn’t mean the Bengals’ run game is cooked. I expect a lot of good production out of Mixon this weekend.

Travis Kelce Vs. The Kitchen Sink

Kind of being facetious, kind of not here. The kitchen sink is what Anarumo is going to throw at Kelce all game long. Logan Wilson is an athletic and good coverage linebacker, but he surrenders three inches to Kelce in height.

However, the Bengals seem to be the only team that does offer an answer to Kelce. In his last four games against Cincinnati, Kelce scored one touchdown, never surpassed five targets, and averages 56.3 yards per game. As seen all season, but especially in the AFC Divisional Round, Anarumo is a magician with scheme. He turned Mike Hilton into the team’s most effective blitzer by bringing him from different depths and through different gaps.

There’s more to it than what fits in this section, but Anarumo has coverage techniques and schemes to either limit Kelce’s effectiveness, or make him Mahomes’ only option. With an ankle presumably not at 100%, expect Mahomes to look for his safety valve more frequently.

Final Thoughts

I’m not touching the point spread, moneyline, or full game point total with a 50-foot poll here. I am not Patrick Mahomes nor his personal doctor and, presumably, you’re not either. There’s just no way to know how he’ll perform no matter how many pressers you hear, reports you read, or warmup videos you watch. I strongly recommend not betting on the major markets pregame.

That said, there’s a few angles I do like about this game. The first is any prop surrounding Joe Mixon; I feel pretty confident in the ability to bet over yards, carries, and receptions. The other angle I like is to either bet under the second half point total or to bet that the first half will be the higher scoring of the two.

Best of luck betting the Bengals vs. Chiefs odds in this game.

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons