AFC Championship Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs Odds

The Cincinnati Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a hotly anticipated matchup in the AFC Championship Game. The game kicks Sunday afternoon at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Bengals vs. Chiefs odds line the game Chiefs at home and Bengals on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at points.

In this article we break down everything you need to know before betting the Bengals at Chiefs AFC Championship odds, props, and injuries. We'll also look at team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

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Bengals At Chiefs Player Props

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Bengals At Chiefs Betting News & Angles

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Bengals Vs. Chiefs Weather

Dry conditions (broken clouds) and 11 mph winds are expected at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday (as of 8:12 AM on January 26), with a high temperature of 18 degrees Fahrenheit.

Bengals Vs. Chiefs Injury Report

Cincinnati Injuries

Kansas City Injuries

Bengals Offense Vs. Chiefs Defense

Chiefs Offense Vs. Bengals Defense

Why The Chiefs Can Cover The Spread

At this point, you're just picking winners. Playoff games cannot end in a tie, so there's not a ton of value picking between +1 and a PK or -1 and a PK. However, news surrounding Patrick Mahomes and his ankle have already and will continue to move this line. The Chiefs opened -3 very briefly and the Bengals maxed out at -2.5 before Mahomes was reported as a full participant at practice.

Despite the Chiefs being 0-3 against the Joe Burrow-led Bengals, the market seems to think the Chiefs are the better team with Mahomes in. When fully healthy, KC has the advantage at quarterback, offensive scheme, and arguably on the defensive line. The Bengals have advantages in defensive play calling and at wide receiver.

However, you have to worry about the Chiefs' rushing defense, particularly inside. (See "Bengals At Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For" below.) The best advice I can give here is to avoid betting the Chiefs on the point spread. Not only are there a bunch of unknowns, despite what reports say, but you're not betting into the best number. That was KC +2.5 and that's gone.

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Why The Bengals Can Cover The Spread

Again, betting the Bengals to win. Their best number was gone the instant it was posted, so patience is key here. Should this line balloon back to CIN +3 (not likely), go ahead and fire on the Bengals, but don't settle. My best advice would be to live bet the Bengals should the number hit +3 or better in-play.

But we know how the Bengals win this game, by executing the same game plan they did last week. Hit Mahomes with unpredictable blitzes– something defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is excellent at– and open up rushing lanes on offense. After all, Burrow and the Bengals are 3-0 against Mahomes and the Chiefs.

An even bigger advantage for Cincinnati would be if Mahomes' mobility is limited. The Bengals have the fourth-highest QB knockdown rate in the NFL (12.2%). As shown against Josh Allen last game, you don't need to get sacks to affect the way a quarterback plays. A few hits changes the way they hang in the pocket.

Read more about a serious advantage I believe the Bengals have on offense below ("Bengals At Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For").

Reasons To Bet The Over

Each of the last three matchups between these two teams resulted in 51 points twice and 65 points once. However, you're battling against Mahomes' injury. He could come out and be totally fine, in which case over the points here would be a good bet. But if he comes out with limited mobility, you're going to need a prayer to surpass points.

Despite being brutally cold, there shouldn't be much weather impact on this game. Both teams are from cold weather environments, so any bump down due to weather is based on assumption.

Reasons To Bet The Under

I hate that every section is prefaced with, "Well watch Mahomes first," but that's the hand we're dealt here. A bet on the under is a bet that Mahomes is playing at less than 100% in the game.

Amarundo is one of the best halftime adjusters in the NFL, not allowing a second-half touchdown until Halloween this year. Rather than betting a full-game under, I'd recommend a second-half under. You could also bet on the second half to be lower-scoring than the first, which oftentimes offers good odds in big games since the assumption is that one team is going to be playing catchup while the other tries to extend their lead.

Not so here. The Bengals' second half defense is nails while the Bengals offense runs the fourth-slowest pace in the NFL in second halves.

Bengals At Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For

Joe Mixon and Interior Offensive Linemen Vs. Chris Jones

The Bengals' reserve offensive line was able to blow Buffalo right off the line of scrimmage on the AFC Divisional Round. As a result, Mixon was able to rush for over 100 yards at 5.3 yards per carry. He missed the Week 13 matchup with the Chiefs, but backup Samaje Perine was able to rush for over 100 yards at 5.0 yards per carry in that game.

The Chiefs give up over six yards per carry to inside runs this season. Mixon's highest yards per carry come right up the middle two-hole (right half of the center). While most of the attention is on the passing game and receivers in this game, Mixon may have the biggest impact.

That is, unless Chris Jones has anything to say about it. His season-high for snaps inside the tackles at defensive tackle came against Cincinnati and for good reason. If we know the Bengals are most effective running the ball up the middle, certainly KC's scouting department knows that.

However, just because he lines up there doesn't mean the Bengals' run game is cooked. I expect a lot of good production out of Mixon this weekend.

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Travis Kelce Vs. The Kitchen Sink

Kind of being facetious, kind of not here. The kitchen sink is what Anarumo is going to throw at Kelce all game long. Logan Wilson is an athletic and good coverage linebacker, but he surrenders three inches to Kelce in height.

However, the Bengals seem to be the only team that does offer an answer to Kelce. In his last four games against Cincinnati, Kelce scored one touchdown, never surpassed five targets, and averages 56.3 yards per game. As seen all season, but especially in the AFC Divisional Round, Anarumo is a magician with scheme. He turned Mike Hilton into the team's most effective blitzer by bringing him from different depths and through different gaps.

There's more to it than what fits in this section, but Anarumo has coverage techniques and schemes to either limit Kelce's effectiveness, or make him Mahomes' only option. With an ankle presumably not at 100%, expect Mahomes to look for his safety valve more frequently.

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Final Thoughts

I'm not touching the point spread, moneyline, or full game point total with a 50-foot poll here. I am not Patrick Mahomes nor his personal doctor and, presumably, you're not either. There's just no way to know how he'll perform no matter how many pressers you hear, reports you read, or warmup videos you watch. I strongly recommend not betting on the major markets pregame.

That said, there's a few angles I do like about this game. The first is any prop surrounding Joe Mixon; I feel pretty confident in the ability to bet over yards, carries, and receptions. The other angle I like is to either bet under the second half point total or to bet that the first half will be the higher scoring of the two.

Best of luck betting the Bengals vs. Chiefs odds in this game.