NFL Playoff Betting: Consider Isiah Pacheco Props For AFC Title Game Odds?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Playoff Betting

With the Conference Championship games around the corner, many bettors will spend their time only handicapping odds for the point spreadmoneyline, or total. Although the NFL playoff betting analysis in this article pertains to those markets, there are other matchup edges to consider for player props. Let’s dive into which ones should be at the top of your list.

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chiefs at ravens: NFL Playoff betting odds

Isaiah Pacheco Under Rushing Yards:

After finishing over his rushing yards prop in consecutive matchups, Pacheco has the interest of our staff for Chiefs anytime touchdown odds. However, I’m expecting Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to showcase plenty of exotic pre-snap looks, including two-high safeties. Pacheco and the rest of Kansas City’s backfield accrued the second-lowest rushing success rate against this formation. It could very well help contain him again.

Additionally, the Chiefs will (finally) face a healthy defense this postseason. Not only does Baltimore boast the NFL’s top defensive rating (per DVOA), but it also has elite linebackers in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, who should often limit Pacheco from reaching the second level. That wasn’t the case against the Bills or Dolphins.

Most importantly, I’m banking on a potential negative game script for Patrick Mahomes & Co. Hence, Pacheco may lack the necessary touches to go over his prop.

Gus Edwards Over Rushing Yards:

Unlike Miami, Buffalo took advantage of Kansas City’s bottom-10 run defense ad nauseam. Much of their success came via Josh Allen’s legs, making likely two-time MVP Lamar Jackson the more appealing option in this market.

Nevertheless, Edwards’ rushing prop closed at 52.5 in the divisional round. Despite going under that number, Justice Hill didn’t overtake the backfield mantle, as the narrative suggests. The two nearly split the carries until the game was out of hand. As long as the Ravens can maintain a positive script, Edwards should produce behind one of the league’s best RPO gap schemes. Thus, his prop has dipped into buy-low territory.

Chiefs logo Chiefs KC
Ravens logo Ravens BAL
Offense Ranking OFF RNK N/A N/A
Defense Ranking DEF RNK N/A N/A
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG

lions at 49ers: NFL Playoff betting odds

Jauan Jennings To Score ATTD:

To preface, this bet hinges upon the notion that 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (shoulder) could miss the NFC Championship game.

If Samuel is out, or even limited, the oft-maligned Brock Purdy is still well-positioned to exploit a secondary that has surrendered the third-most yards per pass attempt (YPA). As a result of Detroit’s subpar corners, it tends to lean on more zone coverage than man-to-man.

Among qualified quarterbacks, Purdy has generated the most EPA per dropback against zone looks. That should continue in ideal weather conditions at Levi’s Stadium. Brandon Aiyuk may wind up as the bigger beneficiary, but Jennings’ fat price tag is the more intriguing option between the two weapons.

Lions logo Lions DET
49ers logo 49ers SF
Offense Ranking OFF RNK N/A N/A
Defense Ranking DEF RNK N/A N/A
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG

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