NFL Playoff Betting: Consider Isiah Pacheco Props For AFC Title Game Odds?

, , ,
Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Playoff Betting

With the Conference Championship games around the corner, many bettors will spend their time only handicapping odds for the point spreadmoneyline, or total. Although the NFL playoff betting analysis in this article pertains to those markets, there are other matchup edges to consider for player props. Let’s dive into which ones should be at the top of your list.

Click on any odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The NFL playoffs odds listed are the best available in your state.

chiefs at ravens: NFL Playoff betting odds

Isaiah Pacheco Under Rushing Yards:

After finishing over his rushing yards prop in consecutive matchups, Pacheco has the interest of our staff for Chiefs anytime touchdown odds. However, I’m expecting Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to showcase plenty of exotic pre-snap looks, including two-high safeties. Pacheco and the rest of Kansas City’s backfield accrued the second-lowest rushing success rate against this formation. It could very well help contain him again.

Additionally, the Chiefs will (finally) face a healthy defense this postseason. Not only does Baltimore boast the NFL’s top defensive rating (per DVOA), but it also has elite linebackers in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, who should often limit Pacheco from reaching the second level. That wasn’t the case against the Bills or Dolphins.

Most importantly, I’m banking on a potential negative game script for Patrick Mahomes & Co. Hence, Pacheco may lack the necessary touches to go over his prop.

Gus Edwards Over Rushing Yards:

Unlike Miami, Buffalo took advantage of Kansas City’s bottom-10 run defense ad nauseam. Much of their success came via Josh Allen’s legs, making likely two-time MVP Lamar Jackson the more appealing option in this market.

Nevertheless, Edwards’ rushing prop closed at 52.5 in the divisional round. Despite going under that number, Justice Hill didn’t overtake the backfield mantle, as the narrative suggests. The two nearly split the carries until the game was out of hand. As long as the Ravens can maintain a positive script, Edwards should produce behind one of the league’s best RPO gap schemes. Thus, his prop has dipped into buy-low territory.

STATS
Chiefs logo Chiefs KC
Ravens logo Ravens BAL
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 1st 16th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 11th T9th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 413.6 338.8
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 328.2 324.3
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 297.8 178.8
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.4 1.2

lions at 49ers: NFL Playoff betting odds

Jauan Jennings To Score ATTD:

To preface, this bet hinges upon the notion that 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (shoulder) could miss the NFC Championship game.

If Samuel is out, or even limited, the oft-maligned Brock Purdy is still well-positioned to exploit a secondary that has surrendered the third-most yards per pass attempt (YPA). As a result of Detroit’s subpar corners, it tends to lean on more zone coverage than man-to-man.

Among qualified quarterbacks, Purdy has generated the most EPA per dropback against zone looks. That should continue in ideal weather conditions at Levi’s Stadium. Brandon Aiyuk may wind up as the bigger beneficiary, but Jennings’ fat price tag is the more intriguing option between the two weapons.

STATS
Lions logo Lions DET
49ers logo 49ers SF
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 4th 5th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 32nd 2nd
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 380 365.6
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 392.4 300.6
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 251.8 226.8
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 0.9 1

NFL betting promos

If you’re in a state with legal sports wagering, TheLines has you covered with the best sportsbook promo codes. Just click on any of the following promos and bonus codes to get started.

Rank
Sportsbooks
Bonus
Features
Play
1
UP TO $1,000
In Bonus Bets
First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000, or Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Sign Up, Deposit and Play Today in VA!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Use Bonus Code: THELINESVA
2
BET $50 
GET $200
If Your First Bet Wins
Bet $50 Get $200 in Bonus Bets
Get Betway Boosts & Enhanced Odds
To Claim: Click Play Now
3
Bet $5
get $150
In Bonus Bets
Bet $5 Get $150 Instantly in Bonus Bets*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Bonus Code: THELINES
4
$1,000 FIRST BET
On Caesars
Up to $1,000 Back as a Bonus Bet if Your Bet Loses
Stream NFL Games In-App for Free
21+ Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Promo Code: THELINES1000
5
Bet $5
Get $150
If Your Bet Wins
Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins
Available on Desktop, Android & iOS
To Claim: Click Play Now
6
$100 bonus
No Regret First Bet
Up to $100 Back if Your First Bet Doesn’t Hit
Get Your Bets Boosted
To Claim: Click Play Now
7
$500 BONUS
2nd Chance Bet
Up To $500 in Bet Credits
ONLY 1x Play Through!
Use Exclusive Bonus Code: LINESRIV

21+ at most sportsbooks; gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

RELATED ARTICLES