Week 6 of the NFL season is giving fans a full slate of great games between evenly-matched teams, including Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Green Bay at Tampa Bay, and Kansas City at Buffalo. Thanks to some tough matchups, this’ll be a week where you’ll have to do your homework for player props. Fortunately, we’re here to do that homework for you.
Below are the picks for this week’s best player prop bets and some of the most intriguing individual matchups of the week.
Using the new player props search tool, you are able to locate props from half a dozen sportsbooks all in one convenient place.
How to use the player props search tool
The new Player Prop Search tool was created for ease of searching for player prop bets based on certain players. To make it even more useful, we’ve added the odds at different sportsbooks; gone are the days of flipping between a dozen tabs and windows to compare. Using the tool is easy, just find the bar in the middle of the page, and type in a player’s name which you’d like to see odds for (example, Travis Kelce). Select the state in which you live next to the search bar and hit enter.
From there, you’ll find a list of several odds along with rows of odds from the different books. We’ve even linked the books to the tool, so you won’t have to open a new window and re-find those odds. The listed odds are live and ever-changing making the tool a one-stop shop.
Most intriguing matchups in Week 6
Aaron Jones vs Tampa Bay’s rush defense
Through the first four games of the season, Aaron Jones is third in rushing yards per game, fifth in total rush yards (despite playing one less game), and has six total touchdowns. Week in and week out, Jones is a matchup nightmare for most defenses, although his usage in Matt LaFluer’s offense can be streaky, but it’s fairly predictable.
Against teams in the bottom half of the league against the pass (Falcons, Saints, Vikings), Jones had 19.7 touches per game for 91 total yards. But in Green Bay’s only game against a team in the top half against the pass and bottom half against the run– Detroit– Jones had 22 touches, 268 yards from scrimmage, and three touchdowns.
This week, the Packers take on the Buccaneers, who’ve given up the second least total rushing yards to running backs this season (215) and the least rushing yards per game (58.4). Tampa is giving up the 13th most total yards passing this season, which would lead one to believe the Packers will rely on the arm of Aaron Rodgers this week.
Interestingly, the Bucs are giving up the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this season (53.6 per game), including nine receptions to Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey combined. Jones is utilized through the air in the Packers’ defense heavily, but this could also mean more snaps for backup Jamaal Williams (13 receptions, 119 yards). It’s worth keeping an eye on this Sunday.
James Robinson vs Detroit’s rush defense
Undrafted free agent James Robinson has been the surprise of the season for Jacksonville, ranking 12th in rushing yards and eighth in fantasy points among running backs. This week, he gets a favorable matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are allowing the most fantasy points (total yards, touchdowns) to running backs on the season. Detroit surrenders the fifth-most rush yards (despite playing four games) and is tied for the third most touchdowns on the ground allowed (again, through only four games).
Jacksonville is getting Robinson his touches both on the ground and through the air. He’s averaging 18.4 touches per game and has been targeted at least four times per game since Week 2. In college, Robinson was a workhorse back who finished his senior season with 1,899 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. He’s been an excellent replacement for Leonard Fournette, who the Jags cut before the season started (assumedly to make way for Robinson).
In their last game, Detroit allowed 119 total yards to the Saints’ Alvin Kamara (this was in spite of a disadvantageous game plan for Kamara, as the Saints trailed for most of the game). In Week 2, they were blitzed for 268 total yards and three touchdowns from the Packers’ Aaron Jones.
Outlier numbers? Maybe. But New Orleans was missing top target Michael Thomas in their Week 4 matchup and the Packers were without top target Davante Adams in their Week 2 matchup. This game, Jacksonville could be looking at playing the game without top target D.J. Chark (at the very least, he won’t be 100%). The equation lines up just right for James Robinson to have a massive day this week.
Kareem Hunt vs Pittsburgh’s rush defense
The Cleveland Browns under new head coach Kevin Stefanski have been exactly what the Browns had hoped when hiring him and now lead the NFL in rushing (188.4 yards per game). Despite losing Nick Chubb for a few weeks with an MCL sprain, the Browns have kept chugging away on the ground behind Kareem Hunt. Despite Indianapolis having one of the best rush defenses in the league, the Browns put up 124 yards on the ground.
Now, Cleveland gets to see another one of the league’s top rushing defenses in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Through four games, the Steelers have given up the least total rushing yards and the sixth-least receiving yards to running backs. On paper, that spells bad news for Hunt, who is one of the best dual threat backs in the NFL.
Despite giving up 80 yards and two touchdowns to Miles Sanders a week ago, the Steelers have been unbelievable at stuffing backs. 74 of Sanders’ 80 yards (92.5%) came on a single long run. Outside of that, he was held to six yards on 10 carries (0.6 ypc). Other backs to suffer the same fate have included Saquon Barkley (six yards on 15 carries, 0.4 ypc), David Johnson (23 yards on 13 carries, 1.8 ypc), and Melvin Gordon (53 yards on 18 carries, 2.9 ypc outside of one 17 yard rush).
The thing the Browns have that the Giants, Broncos, Texans, and Eagles don’t have is a great offensive line. It’ll be interesting to see how Cleveland’s front changes their success (or doesn’t change) against the intimidating Steelers’ rush defense. It’s likely best to shy away from props on this one.
DeAndre Hopkins vs Dallas’ defensive secondary
It’s not a well-kept secret that the Cowboys’ defense is downright atrocious; they allowed 34 points to the New York Giants who, coming into the game, had scored just 47 total points all year (72% increase in points scored). After holding the Rams to 20 points in Week 1, Dallas has failed to hold anyone under that 34-point mark (including 49 to the Browns).
The real concern of the Cowboys’ defense is their lack of a lockdown corner for teams’ go-to receivers. This year, they’ve allowed four 100-yard receivers and have been decimated by top targets; those targets include Robert Woods (6-105-1), Calvin Ridley (7-109-2), D.K. Metcalf (4-110-1), Tyler Lockett (9-100-3), and Odell Beckham Jr. (154 total yards, three touchdowns).
DeAndre Hopkins is the pinnacle of a top target– he’s currently third in the NFL in total targets and has an 84.9% catch rate (best among WRs with at least 25 targets). Twice this season, Hopkins has been held under 100 yards, both of which came against teams in the top 25% of the league in fantasy points allowed to receivers (Washington, Carolina). Dallas ranks 31st against receivers this year, setting Hopkins up nicely for a huge day.
The other aspect to note is the positive game script that’ll likely be used for Arizona. Despite losing Dak Prescott for the remainder of the season, the Cowboys have a hoard of weapons and have proved to be capable of moving the ball under Andy Dalton. This means the Cardinals will have to pass often (Kliff Kingsbury’s specialty) to keep up on the scoreboard. Boil it down to plenty of targets for DeAndre Hopkins and an excellent day.
Season-long player props
You can still bet on regular season player props and futures too! Click the tab in the table below to view more NFL betting options for Week 6.