NFL Player Props: 3 Potentially Underpriced Wide Receiver Stars
NFL training camps are underway around the league, with fans and players alike hoping for big seasons. Those interested in NFL betting already have a ton of NFL receiving props available, including betting on Over/Unders on how many yards and touchdowns their favorite players will have in 2023. This week, I found three players I believe have underpriced props at the best NFL betting sites.
These are players with totals I think are lower than they should be and should improve on last year’s production for various reasons. Make sure to check out the best sports betting sites to maximize potential profits before making NFL futures bets. Click on the odds in the tables below to navigate to the sportsbook with the best available Over/Unders on these players.
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
Over Receiving Yards
The No. 1 WR in Washington is going overlooked this year, as the Commanders’ new ownership takes much of the spotlight in DC. McLaurin has put up more than 900 yards in all four of his seasons so far in the NFL. That number is available at both BetMGM and DraftKings as I write this. While Sam Howell is untested in the NFL, it’s not like McLaurin has had a murderer’s row of quarterbacks throwing to him in his career.
Whether or not Howell will be good is debatable, but given that the Commanders’ two qualifying QBs last year ranked 29th and 33rd in Dropback EPA and 26th and 31st in Success Rate, the burden isn’t high. Howell just needs to not be meaningfully worse than that to do his role.
With the hiring of Eric Bienemy to run the Commanders offense, you’d also expect to get more out of McLaurin than the stagnant offense he’s been in in recent years. This number also has wiggle room in it for an injury – at McLaurin’s 70 yards per game average from last year, he’d cash this over in only 13 games.
The Commanders have been a wasteland, but as the projected worst team in the division and likely trailing often, Howell will have to pass a lot, and McLaurin will be one of the primary beneficiaries. His number’s higher in NFL odds at other sportsbooks, so make sure to get the best available price.
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Rams WR Cooper Kupp
Over Receiving Yards
Kupp’s injury-plagued 2022 has taken some of the shine off of the 2021 All-Pro, but this number is quite low if he plays close to a full season. Even at 2022’s lower per-game efficiency, Kupp would have hit this number if he had played 14 games. A return to his gaudy 114.5 yards/game of 2021 is unlikely, but he still managed 90.2 yards/game in 2022.
Taking out the game he was injured elevates that to 101.6 yards/game, which is a reasonable benchmark assuming the Rams aren’t as bad again this year.
Last year was a disaster for L.A., and specifically for Matthew Stafford. The QB was 32nd in EPA/play, but 20th in Success Rate, because he force fed Kupp the ball. 93 targets in the eight full games they played together would have led the league when extrapolated out over 17 games.
Assuming the Rams get back to the gaudy levels of 2021 is probably foolhardy. This is a team with a win total of Over/Under / for a reason.
The Rams being projected to trail in a lot of these games potentially helps this bet. The more negative game script, the more Kupp may be fed targets. The injury and the emergence of other elite receivers has overshadowed Kupp. However, he was still performing at an elite level in 2022 before the injury. If healthy, 2023 should see him pay off that talent and that relationship with Stafford.
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Raiders WR DAvante Adams
Over Receiving Yards
The narrative that the former Packers star struggled in his first season in Las Vegas is prevalent but not really true. Adams put up 1516 yards on the second-most targets in the league, with a quarterback who was 14th in Dropback EPA and 29th in Success Rate. The guy coming in this year was top five in both categories in 2022.
Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo is an injury risk and often a punch line, but he is the perfect QB to get Adams over this number. Garoppolo excelled in San Francisco by getting the ball to his most talented weapons and letting them do the job.
In a division where the Raiders will need to score a lot of points to win games, that will mean a lot of passing. He put up 226 yards in the final two games of the season when Jared Stidham was Quarterback, showing that even if Jimmy G misses a few games, the number’s not inherently at risk. Target volume is king.
Even if Adams suffers a reduction in targets, the potential improvement at QB should provide an increase in efficiency. And this is coming off a season where Adams passed this number with more than 200 yards to spare. Other than injury – which Adams has been able to mostly avoid in his career – there’s not a lot of reason to believe this is an under look.
Best of luck betting on NFL player props this season. You can follow along here with our 2023 NFL player props coverage all year.