NFL Saturday Player Prop Bets For Broncos at Lions: Can Jahmyr Gibbs Go Over His Props?
Saturday NFL Week 15 odds conclude with the Broncos visiting the Lions. These NFL Saturday player props arrived Thursday, allowing bettors plenty of time to dig into their favorite props before kickoff. Detroit is a home favorite, with Denver on the moneyline to win the game. The Over/Under is set at .
Below, I’ll explain who I’m targeting for NFL Saturday player props in the Broncos vs. Lions game. Use our free Prop Finder Tool on TheLines.com to shop the best player props numbers and best anytime touchdown odds at the best betting sites. Click on the odds below to bet now.
NFL Saturday player props: broncos at Lions
Sam LaPorta Over Receiving Yards
Although the rookie tight end only notched two receptions for 23 yards last week, I expect a bounce-back game. Denver’s defense has been abysmal against tight ends this year, ranking 30th in DVOA against the position. Tight ends have tallied at least 50 receiving yards against them in six straight games.
The glaring weak link on the defense has been linebacker Alex Singleton. Singleton has allowed the most receiving yards of any linebacker in coverage this season, with 596. He’s been credited with allowing five touchdowns in coverage, the most by any linebacker on the year.
This number sat at 45.5 (-115) to the over when I took it on Thursday. If you’re reading this Saturday and the number ticked up a few yards, I think it’s playable up to 52.5.
Jerry Jeudy Under Receiving Yards
Jeudy has found himself playing primarily out of the slot again this season, which has been a strength of the Detroit defense. Lions cornerback Brian Branch, another Alabama product, will greet him on the gridiron. Branch is a second-round draft selection and has been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak secondary. The most receiving yards he’s allowed in a single game this season was in Week 4 against Seattle when he gave up four receptions for 40 yards, an impressive number for a rookie cornerback. Most rookie cornerbacks (aside from Sauce Gardner), struggle in their opening campaign.
Furthermore, the weakness of the Lions’ defense lies in their tendency to give up deep shots to Christian Watson and D.J. Moore in recent weeks. Playing out of the slot, Jeudy doesn’t qualify as the deep threat needed to burn Detroit in the back end. I’ll play Jeudy’s under but wait until right before kickoff after the public has driven up this number.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over Receptions
Although Mandatory Montgomery is eating away at Gibbs’ snaps, I like him to go over his receptions on Saturday evening. Gibbs has been the Lions’ primary back on pass plays, outsnapping Montgomery by 55 snaps over the last three games. That said, he’s only averaged three receptions in those games, but he has a favorable matchup against Denver’s defense. Through 14 weeks, Sean Payton’s squad has allowed the fourth most receptions to running backs at 72. It’s an alarming number, but given the reluctance of some teams to throw at Patrick Surtain II, someone else needs to step up. Thus, primary pass-catching backs have exceeded this number in three of the last four games against Denver.
I’m also playing Gibbs here because of Jared Goff’s recent turnover tendencies. He’s turned the ball over eight times in the last four games, including three fumbles at home against the Packers. They’re lucky to have escaped their previous four matches with a 2-2 record, given that they lost the turnover battle in three contests. At this point, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson must create a script that limits Goff’s turnovers. The simple and obvious choice is to get rid of the ball quickly and get Gibbs more involved in the passing game.
Gibbs has gone Over 3.5 receptions in four of five home games this season, and I expect that trend to continue against Denver. The lone home game Gibbs failed to go over was Week 3 against Atlanta. Detroit led 13-3 at halftime and leaned on the ground game in the fourth quarter, resulting in fewer opportunities for Gibbs in the passing attack.
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