NFL Player Props: Bets, SGP Strategy For Eagles At Patriots

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 10, 2023
NFL player props

NFL Week 1 odds feature a matchup between last year’s runners-up, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the New England Patriots. While the main markets of the spread, over/under, and moneyline will surely receive plenty of action, some bettors prefer to place wagers on NFL player props and same game parlays.

Let’s dive into some possible player prop angles and SGPs for Patriots vs. Eagles.

NFL Player Props: Patriots vs. Eagles

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To optimize your chances of long-term profitability, you must seek out the best available odds across sportsbooks for props. We have a way that makes it simple – our Prop Finder Tool. Search the player name and compare odds across sportsbooks in your state.

There can be an edge in betting the under on weekly player props. Sportsbooks and overs bettors often don’t account for downside scenarios enough. In other words, injuries and players being benched come into play throughout a game. At the same time, that doesn’t mean you should never bet overs. You must be selective when picking your spots based on new information, and it’s always best to handicap each situation independently.


Before diving in, keep in mind that with an over/under of and Eagles odds at , that indicates a projected final score of roughly Eagles 24, Patriots 21. That should inform the decisions we make on NFL player props here.

D’Andre Swift Over Rushing Yards

The Patriots figure to field a fairly solid rush defense. Last season, they finished in the league’s top half by both EPA/play and Success Rate allowed.

However, few teams can run the ball like the Eagles. Only a few teams ran for more yards per game, and nobody did so more efficiently. They brought back their key offensive linemen and replaced Miles Sanders with D’Andre Swift, which should be a roughly neutral move.

Yet, Swift’s rushing prop sits at less than half of the 74.6 YPG posted by Sanders last season. Sure, he’ll likely share touches with Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell. Still, Swift is listed at the top of the depth chart and should lead this backfield.

Furthermore, with the Eagles favored, there should be plenty of carries to go around.

Mac Jones Under Passing Attempts

Last year, Jones threw the ball about 31 times per game in an offense that ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of passing rate. New Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien was actually among the more conservative playcallers in that sense during his time in Houston. Despite boasting a top-end QB in Deshaun Watson, the team typically ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing rate.

O’Brien’s preference for a more ground-bound approach also fits this offense’s personnel. The passing game pieces aren’t particularly inspiring, and the offensive line should be fairly strong outside of right tackle.

Combine that with the Eagles having a strong running game, and we could see the clock ticking frequently here. Yet, Jones sports a pass attempts total that’s a bit inflated compared to last year’s numbers.

In a game that isn’t expected to see the Eagles blowing out New England, he shouldn’t be in must-pass mode for a huge portion.

Patriots Vs. Eagles SGP Strategy

If I’m correct that the game will feature a ticking clock and plenty of rushing, then unders should be the main look. Under the game total would likely be a solid play as well.

Pairing the game under with Jalen Hurts Under 242.5 passing yards makes sense. Throwing in the aforementioned Swift over builds in some negative correlation that helps boost the payout.

That three-leg same game parlay pays out +399, which makes it an option for taking advantage of a potential lower-scoring game in which the Eagles have some success running the ball.

Best of luck betting on NFL player props for Patriots vs. Eagles.

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