NFL Player Props: Target Amon-Ra St. Brown, Patrick Mahomes & MVS in Lions vs Chiefs
The NFL season kicks off tonight as the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football. Sports betting fans should be licking their chops with the various wagers they can place on tonight’s opening contest. Today we will key in on betting analysis for NFL player props and best bets strategy. Those players include Amon-Ra St. Brown, Patrick Mahomes, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
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NFL Player Props: Lions vs. Chiefs
To see the spread, moneyline and total for Thursday Night Football, navigate over to our Lions vs. Chiefs preview.
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NFL PLAYER PROPS STRATEGIES
To optimize your chances of long-term profitability, you must seek out the best available odds across sportsbooks for props. We have a way that makes it simple – our Prop Finder Tool. Search the player name and compare odds across sportsbooks in your state.
There can be an edge in betting the under on weekly player props. Sportsbooks and over-bettors often don’t account for downside scenarios enough. In other words, injuries and players being benched come into play throughout a game. At the same time, that doesn’t mean you should never bet overs. You must be selective when picking your spots based on new information, and it’s always best to handicap each situation independently.
For some, betting the under may be challenging to watch a game. No one wants to cheer for a player to fail, but the increased ROI you can get from focusing on unders should outweigh that for those wanting to be profitable long term.
With the Chiefs as sizeable favorites and with the highest total on the board, this game projects to be a shootout. Bettors should take into account total and spread before betting player props, so they can make bets accordingly.
POTENTIAL LIONS VS. CHIEFS PLAYER PROPS
This contest has the highest over/under on the Week 1 slate. One should expect fireworks to be displayed from these two high-powered offenses. In 2022, the Lions finished fifth in scoring, while the Chiefs ranked first.
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under Rushing Yards /
No team in football surrendered more rushing yards to opposing QBs than the Lions did in 2022. Detroit gave up over 10 yards per game more than any other team in this category! Until we see a change in DC Aaron Glenn’s scheme, QBs should continue to do whatever they want on the ground against the Lions. Mahomes averaged 21 rushing yards per game in 2022. There was an eight-game stretch a season ago where Mahomes ran for 26 or more yards in every contest. This line seems too low.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over/Under Receptions /
In 2022, Jared Goff targeted Amon-Ra St. Brown 76 more times than the next-closest Lion. Over his last 22 games, St. Brown is averaging 9.7 targets per game. Last season, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo’s unit gave up the league’s eighth-most wide receiver receptions. St. Brown is a great bet for double-digit targets in this probable shootout and the Lions being a point underdog, and therefore needing to throw more. St Brown has 7+ receptions in 15 of his last 22 games played.
MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING Over/Under Receiving Yards /
The Chiefs’ wideout rotation could involve up to seven members. Deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling and slot man Skyy Moore stand to play the most snaps. Justin Watson will mix in at least a fair amount, and gadget-type receiver Kadarius Toney sounds ready for at least a minor role after missing all of training camp following surgery. Rookie Rashee Rice, second-year player Justyn Ross, and veteran Richie James may all mix in as well for some snaps.
Valdes-Scantling hasn’t eclipsed 40 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games played. The Lions upgraded their cornerback weaponry in the offseason adding Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Mosely, and CJ Gardner-Johnson which hinders MVS’s chances to succeed even more in this matchup. I’m not worried about the high total set for this game leading to overs on receiving yards, as The Super Bowl combined for 73 points and Valdes-Scantling finished with zero receiving yards.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer
Kelce is questionable to play on TNF and did not practice Wednesday (hyperextended knee, bone bruise). If he does play and is on a limited snap count, it would make sense for him to be used specifically in red-zone packages.
The Mahomes to Kelce connection is one of the league’s deadliest, and that shouldn’t stop in 2023. Kelce has hit pay-dirt in each of his last three season openers. 2022’s Lions allowed the second most touchdowns to opposing TE’s. The Chiefs are going to score multiple touchdowns in this game, and there is no one safer to rely on than the Chiefs No. 1 pass catcher. Having scored 12 touchdowns in 2022 and scoring 4 in 3 playoff games, we know Kelce’s role only increases as the stage gets brighter.
Best of luck betting on NFL player props on Thursday night!
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