NFL Player Prop Bets: 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk Odds Vs. Chiefs
Super Bowl odds have arrived as the San Francisco 49ers get set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. San Francisco is a favorite on top betting sites, with Kansas City on the moneyline to win the game. The Over/Under is set at .
Let’s dive into Brandon Aiyuk props and see if a bet is worth placing. Below, I’ll explain what props I’m targeting.
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49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk under longest reception
Aiyuk turned eight targets into three catches for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Lions. Unlike the NFC Championship game, where we played Aiyuk’s over longest reception, I will play his under here. Against Detroit, the over cashed thanks to a miraculous catch that went off Kindle Vildor’s facemask that Aiyuk could reel in. That said, the Lions and Chiefs secondaries are polar opposites, where Detroit constantly got burned deep while the KC defense did not, allowing a mere 39 explosive pass plays of 20+ yards this year.
Credit for that goes to Steve Spagnoula dialing up blitzes at a high rate, which resulted in the Chiefs being second in the league in pressure rate. L’Jarius Sneed also deserves credit here, as he’s one of the best cover corners in the NFL. Of cornerbacks with a minimum of 500 coverage snaps this season, Sneed allowed a passer rating of 62.5, good for fourth-best in the NFL.
Aiyuk only runs out of the slot 23% of the time, so we can expect the former Sun Devil to get a heavy dose of Sneed on the outside. This longest reception line feels too high for a WR that has only eclipsed this number once in the last three games. The longest reception prop market is quite exploitable if bettors know which defenses are good and bad at limiting explosive pass plays.
Derek’s Bet: Aiyuk under 24.5 yards longest reception
Best Available Number:
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk under receptions
The Niners’ offense has been spreading the ball around a ton lately, with four players tallying ten or more targets in the postseason thus far. It’s hard to project which player will get the higher workload from game to game.
Aiyuk also tends to go under this number against teams that are top-10 in pass defense success rate, like the Cowboys and Browns. Despite tallying a total of sixteen targets in those games, Aiyuk failed to go over four receptions in both contests. Those defenses, of course, possess some of the best cornerbacks in the league in Stephon Gilmore and Denzel Ward, who were crucial to limiting Aiyuk.
Aiyuk may also go under this number if Kyle Shanahan makes this a ground attack. The KC defense is quite exploitable on the ground compared to through the air. KC finished second in pass defense success rate this season while finishing merely 15th in rush defense success rate. The 49ers also averaged 29.3 rush attempts per game, the sixth most in the NFL. Should the Niners’ offense find success on the ground early, Aiyuk may not get many opportunities to eclipse this number.
Best of luck with your own bets on Brandon Aiyuk props for the Super Bowl!
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