After a 25-11 mark (69.4%) through six weeks, let’s keep things rolling. Below are my NFL picks for Week 7 — centered around two spread wagers.
As always, these are bets I have wagered my own money on. There won’t ever be a bet I post about that I also haven’t made.
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New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
For the first of my NFL picks, you can read my betting guide here. I unfortunately made this wager a bit too early, as the market is currently at Saints .
Beat The Closing Line Podcast: NFL Week 7 Betting Breakdown
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Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
Considering Green Bay has tallied consecutive losses, this duel would typically represent a possible bounce-back spot for Matt LaFleur’s team. However, there are a multitude of issues surrounding four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers Under Pressure
For one, he’s dealing with a thumb injury, dating back the final play of the loss to the Giants. Despite noting that he won’t miss Sunday’s affair, there’s reason to believe that his wound has impacted his performance. It could be worsened if Ron Rivera’s defense applies heat on him.
Washington owns the league’s third-highest pressure rate across the NFL (29.3%) while blitzing at an above-average clip (28.4%). Montez Sweat & Co. should have success yet again, as Green Bay’s offensive line ranks below average in Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR). This metric showcases the rate that linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.
Keep in mind, All-Pro offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins certainly don’t look 100% after recovering from their respective injuries.
Even with the Commanders’ secondary woes, the Packers’ new-look receiving corps has struggled to create separation throughout their route trees. This notion is partially exhibited within Rodgers’ 24th-ranked Dropback EPA.
To make matters worse, Rodgers won’t have the services of veteran Randall Cobb (ankle), whose top-40 target rate is worth taking into account.
His ground game likely won’t alleviate him much, either, as Rivera’s run defense has notched a top-10 ranking in its fair share of categories.
Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds
Washington QB Upgrade?
With Carson Wentz out four to six weeks with a ring finger injury, Taylor Heinicke will take his place under center.
Heinicke’s Dropback EPA was below league average last season. Still, it tops what Wentz has delivered thus far, and he’ll have superior weapons at his disposal. The headliner is rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson (hamstring), who may suit up after missing the last two games.
Moreover, Heinicke is set up to receive support from Brian Robinson and the rest of the Commanders’ tailbacks. Since Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry joined the staff in 2021, Green Bay has yielded the second-most Rushing EPA.
Washington’s offensive line would receive a boost if Sam Cosmi (thumb) returns as well. He’s graded out as one of the NFL’s premier run-blockers during his two-year career (via Pro Football Focus).
Packers – Commanders Conclusion
If you couldn’t tell, I bet the Commanders on Wednesday evening, as the Packers are still overvalued in the market. The best available spread is currently .
Additional NFL Picks For Week 7
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS
If you haven’t noticed, the 3-2 Titans may be the luckiest team to date. Not only is their red-zone offense operating at a historical clip (92.3%), but they’re also dead-last in net yards per play (-1.4) — a byproduct of their inept pass defense.
The Colts have revenge on their minds after falling to Tennessee at home in Week 4, too. In that game, Mike Vrabel’s team was gifted a trio of turnovers — two of them during the first half in plus-territory — which allowed Ryan Tannehill & Co. to take a commanding first-half lead.
Turnovers aren’t a predictive stat, and the Titans are due for regression overall.
With that in mind, Indy finally adjusted its offensive game plan in Week 6. Matt Ryan got rid of the ball within 2.5 seconds on 72.4% of the Colts’ no-huddle dropbacks (via PFF). That strategy positioned Ryan to exploit a weak Jacksonville secondary while negating its sound pass rush.
As long as Frank Reich doesn’t force-feed tailback Jonathan Taylor against a stout Tennessee run defense, the Colts’ offense will continue to progress in a positive direction.
I was hoping for this line to tick above the key number of a field goal. With that being said, +2.5 at even money was enough of an edge. My power ratings disagree that the spread between these teams should be around a pick’em on a neutral field.