Eli’s Week 18 NFL Picks: My Favorite Spread And Total Bets

Written By Eli Hershkovich on January 7, 2023
NFL Picks

After going 45-25 (+17.07 units) with my bets through the first 17 weeks of the season, let’s aim to remain hot down the stretch. Below are my NFL picks for Week 18 odds.

There won’t ever be a bet I post that I haven’t wagered on myself. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) to receive an immediate notification when I bet anything, including college basketball oddsClick on any of the odds to place a wager on these NFL picks.

Titans at Jaguars: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Titans coach Mike Vrabel is 21-9-1 (70.0%) against the spread as an underdog of three points or more. He’s 9-1 (90.0%) — both straight up and ATS — with nine-plus days rest in the regular season as well.

All trends are meaningless without context. Some are just senseless in general. With that said, Tennessee has exhibited success in part because of its ability to establish a positive game script. Vrabel has done wonders with extra time to prep, too.

Fast forward to Saturday evening — with the AFC South title on the line. Not only is All-Pro tailback Derrick Henry well-rested after missing their Week 17 loss to the Cowboys with a hip injury, but he’s also up against a Jaguars defense that ranks No. 25 in Football Outsiders’ Variance category. For context, this ranking accounts for a team’s game-to-game consistency as judged by total DVOA rating for each game.

Furthermore, Jacksonville owns the fifth-rated Unadjusted Rush DVOA, which doesn’t factor in their opponents. When it does, the Jags place seven spots lower.

Even with sixth-year journeyman Joshua Dobbs under center, Tennessee should hang within a score if Henry is effective enough behind his above-average offensive line. Whether or not Vrabel’s bunch can milk the clock will be critical as well, considering it showcases the league’s slowest tempo in neutral situations. In turn, that would keep Trevor Lawrence & Co. on the sidelines.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Beat The Closing Line Podcast: NFL Week 18 Betting Breakdown

To listen to the audio-only version of this episode, subscribe to “Beat The Closing Line” on Apple Podcasts.

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Lions at Packers: Spread, Moneyline, Total

There are plenty of playoff implications for this NFC North clash at Lambeau Field. The wager is contingent on a similar script to the one above — with both offenses in mind.

Should Packers running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon deliver against a porous run defense, Green Bay is well-positioned to employ its ultra-methodical pace. On the flip side, the Lions’ ground game is up against a unit that is yielding the second-most Rush EPA per carry across the NFL. Factor in their leisurely tempo when leading or trailing by a score, and the total is set up to go under, regardless of which team is ahead.

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