After going 41-24 (63.0%) with my bets through the first 14 weeks of the season, let’s keep things rolling. Below are my NFL picks for Week 15 odds.
There won’t ever be a bet I post that I haven’t wagered on myself. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) to receive an immediate notification when I bet anything, including college basketball odds. Click on any of the odds to place a wager on these NFL picks.
49ers at Seahawks: Spread, Moneyline, Total
For a full breakdown of my wager on this game, click here.
Beat The Closing Line Podcast: NFL Week 15 Betting Breakdown
To listen to the audio-only version of this episode, subscribe to “Beat The Closing Line” on Apple Podcasts.
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Cowboys at Jaguars: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Buy Jacksonville’s Offensive Success?
Somehow, the Jaguars are still alive in the AFC South race (). Their offense is playing well enough to remain in the hunt, generating the 10th-most EPA per play since Week 9.
Even better, Trevor Lawrence boasts the second-best Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) among all quarterbacks during this stretch. This metric accounts for accompanying variables that make a pass more or less likely to be completed.
Granted, Lawrence is up against a Cowboys defense that’s surrendering the third-lowest Dropback EPA. However, their ranking in that department doesn’t account for consistency, as they place No. 17 across the league in Football Outsiders’ Variance category. Considering this game represents a potential look-ahead spot with the NFC East-leading Eagles on deck, it’s certainly worth noting.
Moreover, Dan Quinn’s unit is most exploitable in nickel coverage — with corner Kelvin Joseph on the outside. Lawrence & Co. should be in position take advantage in 11 personnel, especially with veteran wideout Marvin Jones Jr.
Dallas’ Injury Concerns
Although the Cowboys delivered a comeback win against the Texans on Sunday, it came at a price. Starting right tackle Terrence Steele suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Steele has not only been one of the better all-around players at his position, but he’s also only yielded one sack in 2022.
Keep in mind, Dallas’ offensive line has collectively struggled to protect Dak Prescott, notching the second-worst Pass Block Win Rate. This metric computes how often an offensive lineman retains his block for at least 2.5 seconds. While All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith is reportedly set to make his season debut, there’s no guarantee that he’s ready for a full workload.
On the flip side, Jacksonville has accrued the NFL’s seventh-highest pressure rate. If its defensive front is able to remain effective in this matchup, it’ll mitigate the struggles of its lackluster secondary.
Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds
NFL Picks Conclusion
If you’re already subscribed to our aforementioned Discord betting channel, you’ll see my Jaguars +4.5 wager. I’d back them down to +4, as it’s still above the key number of a field goal. Good luck with your own NFL picks.
