Eli’s Week 14 NFL Picks: My Two Favorite Spread Bets

Written By Eli Hershkovich on December 10, 2022 - Last Updated on December 11, 2022
NFL Picks

After going 39-24 (62.0%) with my bets through the first 13 weeks of the season, let’s keep things rolling. Below are my NFL picks for Week 14 odds.

There won’t ever be a bet I post that I haven’t wagered on myself. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) to receive an immediate notification when I bet anything, including college basketball oddsClick on any of the odds to place a wager on these NFL picks.

Vikings at Lions: Spread, Moneyline, Total

You’re not experiencing a computer malfunction. The 5-7 Lions are favored over the 10-2 Vikings — and for good reason.

Over the last 20 seasons, there have been 53 teams to start eight games over the .500 mark. Minnesota showcases the worst point differential among all of them. Moreover, nine of its wins come by one score, illustrating that positive variance has been on Kevin O’Connell’s side.

One of those victories came against Detroit, which blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in Week 3. That contest also featured Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and tailback D’Andre Swift. They showcase a 8-0 ATS mark when these playmakers suit up this season.

You should never tail a trend blindly, but their fourth-rated EPA per play with those two in the lineup is certainly worth noting. Dan Campbell’s team has quietly fought its way back into the wild-card mix as well, so this revenge spot is significant for its short-term outlook.

On top of that, Jared Goff has posted the 10th-highest Dropback EPA in 2022. After posting 6.7 YPA in their first meeting, expect Goff to have more success versus Ed Donatell’s shell zone defense. Goff also boasts the highest accuracy rating against zone looks — among all quarterbacks — this season.

Minnesota’s straight-up record has covered up its defensive holes, manufacturing the 24th-rated Pass DVOA to date (per Football Outsiders).

Even with this line initially moving five points from the opener, which I played it at, I’d still consider betting Detroit at the current spread. If you missed the best of the number, consider joining our aforementioned Discord betting channel.

Beat The Closing Line Podcast: NFL Week 14 Betting Breakdown

To listen to the audio-only version of this episode, subscribe to “Beat The Closing Line” on Apple Podcasts.

Free Pick’Em Contests! Compete for prizes every day by entering our free betting games. NFL, NBA, college basketball and more!

Dolphins at Chargers: Spread, Moneyline, Total

I have a bigger Sunday Night Football guide for this matchup, which you can read here.

New BetMGM Promo — Available in Illinois, Louisiana, Kansas

Get Up to $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets
Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich