Eli’s Week 12 NFL Picks: My Favorite Spread And Total Bets

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 24, 2022
NFL Picks

After going 36-23 (63.0%) through the first 11 weeks of the season, let’s try to keep things rolling. Below are my NFL picks for Week 12 odds — centered around two wagers against the spread.

There won’t ever be a bet I post that I haven’t wagered on myself. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) to receive an immediate notification when I bet anything, including college basketball oddsClick on any of the odds to place a wager on these NFL picks.

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Giants at Cowboys: Spread, Moneyline, Total

I usually don’t dabble in totals, but this one intrigued me after it was bet up after opening at 43. Remember, 44 is a key number when it comes to this market.

Given the Giants’ offensive line injuries while going up against a formidable pass rush, they’ll need to generate success on the ground in order to hang around. Most metrics will illustrate that the Cowboys boast an elite defense in both aspects, yet it’s notched the third-worst Run Stop Win Rate (RSWR) across the NFL. For context, if a defender earns a run stop win, his blocker earns a loss, and vice versa.

Dan Quinn’s unit may also be without defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) and nose tackle Johnathan Hankins (illness), which impacts their run defense. Meanwhile, All-Pro linebacker Micah Parsons (knee/ankle) is expected to suit up.

If New York has to endure a negative game script throughout much of this one, Daniel Jones & Co. aren’t positioned to keep up through the air. But the opposite storyline would provide them with an opportunity to milk the clock and keep Dak Prescott’s attack on the sidelines.

Mind you, the Giants rank No. 20 in regards to pace in neutral situations (via Football Outsiders). They operate slower with a lead of any sort.

On the flip side, Tony Pollard and Dallas’ run game can execute similarly with a double-digit lead. Even with defensive backs Adoree’ Jackson and Xavier McKinney banged up, New York is more exploitable on the ground, yielding the eighth-highest Rushing EPA.

Beat The Closing Line Podcast: NFL Week 12 Betting Breakdown

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Raiders at Seahawks: Spread, Moneyline, Total

We’ve reached the point where the Seahawks are slightly overvalued after their 6-4 start. Enter the 3-7 Raiders, which showcase the 12th-ranked Offensive DVOA.

This metric adjusts for the difficulty of a given team’s schedule. But they’re still inheriting too much market value because of their collective struggles.

The Seahawks losing safety Jamal Adams for the entire season has been mitigated by the emergence of Evan Neal. Nevertheless, Seattle is surrendering the ninth-highest Dropback EPA. Its defense ranks No. 21 in EPA per play allowed overall.

Tight end Foster Marreau, who’s surprisingly filled in well for Darren Waller (IR), should find his fair share of space over the middle. That area is easily the Seahawks’ most vulnerable spot on the field against opposing aerial attacks. They’re even dead-last at defending the position as well.

Moreover, Derek Carr & Co. are producing the league’s sixth-highest passing percentage. Josh McDaniels is difficult to trust, yet I’d anticipate Las Vegas continuing that trend.

Its offense also moves at the 26th-rated pace in neutral situations. That should comfort the Raiders’ defense, which has been taken advantage of in every which way. Best of luck with your NFL picks.

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