After going 34-20 (63.0%) through the first nine weeks of the season, let’s try to keep things rolling. Below are my NFL picks for Week 10 odds — centered around two wagers against the spread.
There won’t ever be a bet I post that I haven’t wagered on myself. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) to receive an immediate notification when I bet anything, including college basketball odds. Click on any of the odds to place a wager on these NFL picks.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
Although the Dolphins are coming off three consecutive wins, all of them came by one score, indicating there could be potential regression en route. That’s also in part because of their subpar defense, which is yielding the ninth-most Yards Per Play (YPP).
Cleveland’s Offensive Mismatch
Kevin Stefanski’s unit revolves around its zone rushing scheme. The Browns are generating the league’s highest Rushing EPA, thanks to Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and a stout offensive line. The latter should receive a boost if right guard Wyatt Teller (calf) returns as well.
With that in mind, Miami’s run defense hasn’t been the issue, and the addition of ex-Broncos linebacker Bradley Chubb aids that department even more.
Nevertheless, the Dolphins are letting up the fourth-highest Dropback EPA. Losing defensive backs Byron Jones (ankle) and Brandon Jones (torn ACL) hasn’t helped, either.
While Cleveland doesn’t operate through Jacoby Brissett’s arm, the veteran signal caller owns the eighth-best Dropback EPA + CPOE composite. The second of the two metrics accounts for contextual variables that make a pass more or less likely to be completed.
To aid his efforts, reliable tight end David Njoku (ankle) could be reinstated into the fold after missing the Browns’ blowout win over the Bengals. Look for Brissett and their aerial attack to exploit a vulnerable secondary, opening up room for their explosive ground game.
NFL Picks Conclusion
Joe Woods’ pass defense was much-improved before the bye week, allowing the fifth-lowest Dropback EPA in its last two contests. It should get Denzel Ward (concussion) and possibly linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (knee) back too.
Assuming the Browns can limit the Dolphins’ air-heavy offense via Tua Tagovailoa and company, they’ll be in position to at least keep this one within a field goal.
For the first of my NFL picks, I grabbed Cleveland +4 on Tuesday. You’ll find it in our aforementioned Discord. Bet it down to +3.5.
Beat The Closing Line Podcast: NFL Week 10 Betting Breakdown
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Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Still, Tennessee is certainly well-coached via the likes of Mike Vrabel, nearly pulling off the upset at the Chiefs as 14-point road underdogs. So how should we approach this AFC clash?
Will Russell Wilson Bounce Back?
Not only has Wilson and the Broncos’ passing game manufactured the 11th-lowest Dropback EPA in the “first half,” but Wilson also dealt with a shoulder injury. Their offense collectively tallied the seventh-fewest EPA per play. But there’s a chance that Wilson and first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett figured something out during their off-week.
The Titans’ pass defense ranks above average in that category, yet they’ve benefited from facing the likes of Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, and a banged-up Matt Ryan twice in recent weeks. Mind you, EPA doesn’t adjust for the opponent.
Unlike the previous utilization of this metric, this matchup is represents an opportunity to sell-high on their secondary while buying low on Denver’s slow start. Its receiving corps features a talented Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler.
The potential return of right tackle Cameron Fleming (quadriceps) would pay dividends against the Titans’ underrated pass rush, too.
Requiring A Positive Game Script
Both teams will be desperate for a hot start. For one, Tennessee’s offense runs through All-Pro tailback Derrick Henry, who can cash in on a weaker left side of the Denver’s defensive front. His touches will be there if Vrabel’s team doesn’t fall behind.
However, the Broncos’ front seven should tee off on Ryan Tannehill (ankle) or Malik Willis if Wilson & Co. deliver some success in the early goings. They’re notching the seventh-highest pressure rate (25.0%), and the Titans’ pass protection is arguably the worst in the league.
Denver also boasts an elite secondary, led by cornerback Patrick Surtain, surrendering the lowest Dropback EPA in the NFL.
Even if Tannehill suits up after a two-game absence, he noted that he’ll be dealing with the injury for a prolonged stretch. To make matters worse, it’s on his plant foot.
NFL Picks Conclusion
Despite the spread sitting under a key number, I bet a cheap Denver +2.5. I’m admittedly taking a shot with this line possibly rising to +3 again if Tannehill plays. You could be less risk averse and back the Broncos in a teaser as one of your NFL picks.