2024 NFL Picks: 3 Underrated Teams Poised To Exceed Expectations

One of the best ways to win money betting on the NFL is to identify regression targets. They’re not always easy to find, but teams who ran either well or very badly to achieve their previous results don’t often repeat that success. Last year’s Eagles, who started 10-1 despite middling underlying metrics, prove the utility of leaning into regression. Positive regression candidates provide some useful information for season-long NFL picks.

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Positive Regression Candidates for NFL Picks

There are various methods of identifying regression candidates, including point differential. For our purposes, we’ll be using the estimated wins by DVOA as a baseline. Obviously, these numbers are context-dependent, but they do a decent job of identifying teams likely to beat their projections.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 Record: 9-8
2023 Estimated Wins: 8.9 Wins
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This is an odd starting point, in a sense, but it’s my favorite positive outlook NFL bet on the board. The Jaguars managed 8.9 expected wins in a season where they only had 11.5 games of a healthy Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars were probably outperforming their metrics to some extent before Lawrence’s injury against the Bengals, but mostly because of an offense that couldn’t get on the same page.

The Jaguars’ defense was 11th by EPA through 12 weeks before the inept offense started to wear the defense down.

Since then, the Jaguars have signed Arik Armstead to fortify the pass rush, they signed Gabe Davis to give the passing game some vertical stretch, and they gave themselves some depth on the offensive line. Their season will sink or swim on the QB, however, and I think Trevor Lawrence is being underrated. Lawrence was 10th in Dropback EPA when he got hurt. If he’s a Top 10 QB again, they should easily cruise over their win total and make the playoffs.

In the AFC, it’s likely two teams from both the AFC North and AFC East are making the playoffs. That means Jacksonville just has to either win the AFC South – easily plausible, given the possibility Stroud struggles in his sophomore year – and then be better than Cleveland and the Chargers and the third-best team in the AFC East. Given that I’d take Lawrence over current Aaron Rodgers, the ignominious version of Deshaun Watson we’ve seen, Tua, and Anthony Richardson and his 5 quarters of NFL football, I like my odds.

Jacksonville was a trendy sleeper contender in NFL picks last year. Now they’re forgotten about. They’re primed to surprise.

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Arizona Cardinals

2023 Record: 4-13
2023 Estimated Wins: 5.6
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The Cardinals were sneaky competitive all of last year. Beating the Cowboys early in the season was the main example, but Arizona was just mediocre and not terrible. They got Kyler Murray back and improved a bit, but for most of the season they were running out Josh Dobbs at QB. Managing 5.6 expected wins without their starting QB for half the season is impressive.

What’s more important is their offseason additions. The Cardinals added Sean Murphy-Bunting and a handful of other starters to a defense that was 31st by EPA in 2023. LJ Collier will be back after missing all but one game last year. None of this projects them for a Top 20 defense even, but being ~22nd and not 31st will help them win a lot more games.

A 6.5 total would have made sense if the Cardinals had Kyler available Week 1 or they had revamped their defense. With both, the number should be a bit higher. That it’s not is a win for us.

Miami Dolphins

2023 Record: 11-6
2023 Estimated Wins: 10.9
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The Dolphins have legitimate questions about themselves as a playoff team and against elite competition. That’s totally true. They’re also returning the vast majority of the team that just won 11 games. Jordan Porter and Kendall Fuller should augment a secondary that was already 13th against the pass in 2023. There’s some turnover in the linebacking core and on the offensive lines, but they’re not meaningfully worse.

The Dolphins are suffering from boredom, and Jets Mania. The Dolphins are a boring team. Their QB is good, not great, but he puts up elite stat lines due to his weapons and scheme. Tua was fourth in Dropback EPA last year, which doesn’t seem that hard to at least directionally repeat. Mike McDaniel will still be calling the Shanahan offense. Yes, the Dolphins are probably drawing dead in cold weather and in the playoffs. After Thanksgiving night in Green Bay, they play one cold-weather game for the rest of the season.

The enthusiasm for the Jets is distracting people that Miami is just better than they remember. The Bills lost tons of talent this year, and the Dolphins went 0-2 against them. The AFC East also plays the NFC West and AFC South, two divisions full of good and not great teams. Miami should easily cruise over the 9.5-win total.

Best of luck with NFL picks in 2024!

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