The Best NFL Odds To Lead Playoffs in Passing, Rush, Receiving

Written By Derek Wagner on January 13, 2023
nfl picks

With NFL Wild Card odds released and playoffs set to get underway on Saturday, leading sportsbooks have opened their playoff stat leader props, which includes most playoff passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards. Are any longshots worth considering? Which sports betting apps have the best odds for these NFL picks?

We’ve done the work for you and assembled them in one place. Click any of the odds to bet now.


The NFL picks table below has pulled in the best odds available in your state for each player to lead the NFL postseason in playoff odds. Don’t waste time flipping between sportsbook apps.

Recent History of Playoff Passing Yards Leaders

In the last two seasons, the leader in this category has not been a team with a first-round bye.

2021 Playoff passing yards leaders

PlayerPassing YardsPlayoff SeedSuper Bowl Reached
Matthew Stafford1,1884Yes
Joe Burrow1,1054Yes
Patrick Mahomes1,0572
Josh Allen6373
Tom Brady6002
Jimmy Garoppolo5356

2020 Playoff passing yards leaders

PlayerPassing YardsPlayoff SeedSuper Bowl Reached
Tom Brady 1,0615Yes
Patrick Mahomes8501Yes
Josh Allen8172
Aaron Rodgers6421
Ben Roethlisberger5013
Baker Mayfield4676

Players Worth Targeting

I’ve circled Justin Herbert here. He checks the box for a quarterback who isn’t on a bye to start the postseason, and the Chargers lean heavily on the passing game. Additionally, the Charger defense ranks fifth in EPA over the last four weeks. Although this number is slightly inflated given their opponents, the team has had Joey Bosa back the previous two weeks. The combination of Bosa and Khalil Mack rushing the passer could help Herbert’s squad make a playoff run.


Recent History of Playoff Rushing Yards Leaders

No player from a No. 1 seed appears on the below list from the last two years. The Chiefs made it as the No. 1 seed two years ago, but negative game script in the Super Bowl forced them to abandon the run.

2021 Playoff rushing yards leaders

PlayerRushing YardsPlayoff SeedSuper Bowl reached
Joe Mixon2624Yes
Cam Akers1724Yes
Elijah Mitchell1696
Jerick McKinnon1502
Deebo Samuel1376
Josh Allen1343

2020 Playoff rushing yards leaders

PlayerRushing YardsPlayoff SeedSuper Bowl reached
Leonard Fournette3005Yes
Cam Akers2216
Alvin Kamara1842
Lamar Jackson1705
Josh Allen1452
Nick Chubb1456

Longshots Worth Considering

James Cook of the Bills is the first player worth mentioning here. If the Bills make it through the AFC, he will have played four games as opposed to a Chiefs running back who would only play three (first-round bye). Cook has a tough matchup in the Wild Card round, against a Dolphins squad yielding the sixth-lowest yards per carry (4.1) in the NFL. Cook did see an uptick in carries though over the Bills last two games. Additionally, he was able to notch 34 yards on only five carries in the last game against the Dolphins.

Another longshot worth pondering is Elijah Mitchell. Christian McCaffrey as many fans know, has battled injuries. If he goes down, Mitchell would be next man up. His Wild Card matchup helps as well, as the Seahawks defense has yielded the seventh-highest yards per carry this season, at 4.9 yards. He also would check the box of four games played if the Niners made the Super Bowl, as the Eagles hold the first-round bye in the AFC. Furthermore, the Niners game Saturday could see heavy wind gusts up to 24 mph and rain.


Recent History of Playoff Receiving Yards Leaders

Once again, the teams who are not the No. 1 seed provide some value here. In 2021, no player that was on the bye to open the playoffs appeared in the top six. Both No. 1 seeds were bounced in the divisional round last season. If you can target a potential upset in the divisional round, there is tremendous value in this market. However in 2020, the juggernaut Chiefs offense topped the list as a 1-seed.

2021 Playoff receiving yards leaders

PlayerReceiving yardsPlayoff SeedSuper Bowl reached
Cooper Kupp4784Yes
Ja’Marr Chase3684Yes
Tee Higgins3094Yes
Travis Kelce2992
Odell Beckham Jr.2884Yes
Tyreek Hill2852

2020 Playoff receiving yards leaders

PlayerReceiving yardsPlayoff SeedSuper Bowl reached
Travis Kelce3601Yes
Tyreek Hill3551Yes
Stefon Diggs3112
Chris Godwin2325Yes
Mike Evans2045Yes
Marquise Brown196

NFL Picks Worth Targeting

I’m bullish on DeVonta Smith here. He finished the season on a tear and could easily continue it. Brandon Aiyuk provides tremendous value as well after quietly reaching the 1,000 receiving yard mark this season. The third-year pro out of Arizona State averaged just over 80 receiving yards per game over the final three weeks of the season. If this trend continues, he could be right at the top near the end.

Lastly, Tee Higgins stands out at +2000 odds. He finished last year’s postseason 59 yards behind his teammate Ja’Marr Chase. He faces an opponent in the Ravens who rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed, at 6.7 yards. Given the favorable matchup this weekend, he could be worth the look if you expect the Bengals to come out of the AFC.


This market provides tremendous value for bettors who can correctly handicap the NFC and AFC champion, especially if you have Super Bowl tickets in your accounts. If you have a Super Bowl ticket on the Eagles, for example, an interesting correlation would be to bet Smith as receiving yards leader this postseason if you think they could lose to the AFC champion.

Best of luck with your NFL picks in these very fun betting markets!

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