NFL Picks: Why I’m Betting Under On Dallas Cowboys Win Total

The Cowboys have showcased incredible consistency over the past three years, going 12-5 each season to easily surpass their win total. Yet, I find myself skeptical of their chances when evaluating Cowboys odds for 2024. In fact, I am pulling the trigger on a bet for Under 9.5 wins here among my NFL picks on futures going into the season. I’ll explain my reasoning below.

Dallas Cowboys Odds: Futures Markets

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Evaluating Cowboys Roster And Staff FOr NFL Picks

Cowboys Offense

Dak Prescott exploded for a career season in 2023. He finished second in MVP voting while firing a 36-9 TD-INT ratio. He finished No. 2 among qualified QBs in EPA+CPOE.

However, it’s notable that Dallas finished just ninth in offense DVOA compared to second in EPA/play. Everyone knows Dallas played a cupcake schedule. Since DVOA applies opponent adjustments, it’s clear this offense, like the rest of the team, feasted on the softest parts of that schedule.

Talent-wise, the offensive line looks set for a step back. This group has provided a strong foundation for years. But Tyron Smith is gone, replaced by rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton. Even talented rookies very often struggle to adjust to NFL line play. Center Brock Hoffman is a total unknown. As an undrafted player with two career starts, it’s hard to expect much. RT Terence Steele stunk up the joint last year after having a good season in 2022.

While the guard play should be strong thanks to Zack Martin and Tyler Smith, having three question marks on the offensive line puts Dallas in a precarious position. Especially so when one considers that Prescott is more dependent on his ecosystem than most QBs.

The playmaking corps features an A-list superstar in CeeDee Lamb and not a whole lot else. Brandin Cooks enters his age-31 season and is probably stretched as a WR2. TE Jake Ferguson is probably the No. 2 target, which isn’t ideal. The running back room is terrible.

Depth isn’t a strong suit in this unit. Dallas has committed so much money to its top guys that it can’t really afford high-quality backups along the OL or the receiving corps.

Cowboys Defense

Dallas had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2023. They finished top five in both DVOA and EPA/play.

It’s not hard to see why, starting with Micah Parsons up front. He’s one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL. His skills keep offensive coordinators up at night, and the blocking attention he gets opens up lanes for everyone else.

The coverage unit should be strong again, but it depends somewhat on Trevon Diggs’ return from a torn ACL. If he recaptures his old form, he’ll pair with DaRon Bland to create one of the NFL’s best pairings at CB.

Where Dallas struggled at times in 2023 was stopping the run. They surrendered a league-worst 44% Success Rate on the ground. Support from the secondary enabled them to limit big plays, but teams could move the ball by attacking the middle of this defense.

The Cowboys will hope second-year man Mazi Smith takes a step forward here after he got his tail kicked last year. He reportedly bulked up to his old college weight after opposing linemen had their way with him.

The biggest possible issue here comes from the brain drain up top. Dan Quinn did commendable work coordinating this unit before moving on to a head coaching gig in Washington. Dallas made a very odd choice to replace him, bringing in former Vikings head man Mike Zimmer. Zimmer spent the past two years as a low-level college assistant. At 68, how up to speed is he on modern NFL defensive principles?

Schedule And Other Factors

After surprisingly winning the division in 2023, Dallas will play a first-place schedule, and it’s no picnic. The weakness of NFC East franchises Washington and New York mitigates things somewhat, but the Cowboys must play the Lions, 49ers, and Texans in their crossover games. Yikes.

Drawing the AFC North is a bit rough as well.

Another lingering concern is the failure to get deals done with star performers Prescott and Lamb. The latter hasn’t even reported to camp, and the former is a pending free agent after the season. I tend to think professionals are going to show up and perform, but I also get nervous when a player hasn’t been working out with the team. Lamb may need some time to shake off some rust. Or worse, he might not enter the season in 100% game shape.

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Mo’s NFL Picks: Cowboys Under 9.5 Wins (+125)

I think Dallas enters 2024 in a precarious position. Prescott was tremendous last year, but almost everything went right for Dallas. The schedule stiffens considerably, and the lack of depth on offense is alarming in a sport where injuries are commonplace.

Anything happening to Lamb is an especially big concern. Almost every team would take a major hit from losing WR1. But I think Dallas would see a bigger impact than almost any other team, given how thin the receiving group is and how much Prescott struggles when things break down around him. To me, the offense looks almost entirely reliant on the Prescott-to-Lamb connection.

The defense looks good, but I’m wary of the change in coaching here and how Dallas fattened up on overmatched QBs.

The coaching staff overall is a major concern for me.

NFL Picks: Cowboys Under 9.5 wins. You can get this at +125 (Bet Now) at Caesars Sportsbook, but an even better price (+140) is available to those with access to Circa. I think the Cowboys peaked last year and are headed for a bit of a fall in 2024.