Mo’s NFL Picks & Best Bets For Week 5 Including Saints vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll assess NFL odds and write up my favorite wagers. I’ll take a look at odds for point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals throughout the season. These NFL picks are simply my favorites of the week, and I encourage readers to think critically and decide for themselves whether there’s any merit to the bets before adding to your bet slips, assigning big confidence pool points, or considering in NFL Survivor.
Let’s take a look at a couple of my favorite plays for NFL Week 5 odds. I’m fading my Chiefs this week after another pretty poor performance, and I also like the stinky Browns to ambush a Washington team whose hype is ballooning.
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NFL Week 5 Picks: Saints +5.5
I was excited about this Chiefs team coming into the season, and it looked rightfully so after they outplayed the Ravens at home for what should have been a fairly comfortable win. However, things have taken a turn for the worse in the ensuing weeks.
K.C. was outgained by the Falcons and Bengals by YPP, and then they nearly frittered away what should have been an easy win against a Chargers team devastated by injury.
Now, without Rashee Rice, this offense could go from unexciting to downright mediocre. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t trust his tackles (rightfully so), nobody can consistently get open, and Mahomes is making uncharacteristic silly mistakes. This team just doesn’t look very sharp.
Perhaps it’s simply boredom and they will turn it on in January again. But laying -5.5 against a solid Saints team seems like too much.
New Orleans deserved a better fate last week after they were the better team from the line of scrimmage but allowed two non-offensive TDs. I’m always inclined to buy after a result like that.
The Saints’ defense ranks second in DVOA, and I haven’t forgotten about the offense’s high-flying start. I think these Chiefs DBs are beatable outside of Trent McDuffie. As long as they can give Derek Carr some protection, they should find some space in the secondary.
Final Thoughts
Why should I believe the Chiefs are going to run away from anyone? Even when they play a dreadful, injury-blasted Chargers team, they play with their food for three quarters before sealing things up in the fourth. Mahomes throws a horrific INT every week, and this cross-conference game is exactly the sort they can afford to drop when they’re sitting 4-0 and head and shoulders above the division.
Give me Saints odds at +5.5, and I’ll have some moneyline too.
NFL Week 5 Picks: Browns +3 (+100)
Everyone is down on the Browns right now and sky-high on the Commanders. That opens up an ideal spot to buy the Browns, and I like this matchup for them.
Has Deshaun Watson sucked? Absolutely, but he is also playing behind a patchwork offensive line. It looked like he had some quality backup tackles stepping in, at least, but Dawand Jones got his tail kicked last week and James Hudson hasn’t really been any better.
Well, Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills returned to practice this week. C Ethan Pocic, who suffered an injury against the Raiders, did likewise. This unit could be whole for the first time all year.
If Amari Cooper can hang onto the ball when it finds his hands, the Browns might have something cooking against an absolutely atrocious Washington defense (30th in DVOA, 32nd in EPA/play allowed).
I’m enjoying the show from Jayden Daniels as much as anyone, particularly since I invested heavily in best ball. However, I think people need to take a step back and look at the whole picture. For starters, this offense has feasted for two weeks on the worst defenses in the league.
Furthermore, Daniels wasn’t very impressive in the prior two games as a passer. He hasn’t established a consistent ability to throw to wide receivers down the field. There’s far too much Zach Ertz and dumping to backs happening for me to buy that this is an elite offense.
I think Daniels is about to get a reality check against a defense that was elite on paper entering 2024.
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Final Thoughts
I’m selling this Washington offense after a couple of fireworks shows against defenses that nobody respects. We should see the Browns get at least somewhat back on track with their own offense, and the Cleveland pass rush should destroy this overmatched offensive line.
This number would have been closer to Browns odds -3 than the other way around if they played Week 1, and I think those priors should still hold at least a little bit of weight.
Mo’s Full NFL Week 5 Betting Card
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