Mo’s NFL Picks & Week 7 Best Bets: Bucs Vs. Ravens, Colts vs. Dolphins
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll assess NFL odds and write up my favorite wagers. I’ll take a look at odds for point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals throughout the season. These NFL picks are simply my favorites of the week, and I encourage readers to think critically and decide for themselves whether there’s any merit to the bets before adding to your bet slips, assigning big confidence pool points, or considering in NFL Survivor.
Let’s take a look at a couple of my favorite plays for NFL Week 7 odds. This week, I like the Bucs to keep things close at home in a primetime spot against the powerful Ravens. And I’m looking for an under between the Colts and the Dolphins.
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NFL Week 7 Picks: BUccaneers +3.5 vs. Ravens
The Ravens are flying high at the moment, ranking at or near the top of almost everyone’s NFL power rankings. However, there’s been a clear weakness on display thus far, one which the Buccaneers are well-positioned to take advantage of.
Strong opposing passing attacks have had their way with this team. The Chiefs moved the ball at will in Week 1, the negative game script enabled the Raiders to come back in Week 2, and the offense had to put up piles of points to outscore the Bengals and Commanders the past two weeks.
Overall, the Ravens rank an ugly 27th in EPA/play allowed passing, and their pass defense DVOA was 16th entering last week.
Other aspects of the team have struggled at times, but the one thing we know the Buccaneers can do is pass the football. Entering Week 6, they ranked in the top 10 in pass offense DVOA, pass offense Success Rate, and pass offense EPA/play. They remain first in Success Rate.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin look well-positioned to take advantage of these corners in much the same way Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase did.
The Bucs defense has looked horrid at times, particularly in allowing more than 500 passing yards to Kirk Cousins. However, getting Antoine Winfield Jr. back in the fold will be key here, and the Ravens don’t have many weapons to help fuel a high-volume passing game. They’ll be looking to pound the rock a decent amount.
Final Thoughts
I think the Bucs can keep this one close at home with a favorable matchup for their offense. I’m a little worried about a shootout, which could result in the points not mattering as much, so Bucs odds on the moneyline might be even better here. Still, I don’t think they should be getting the hook here, as my numbers have Ravens -3 as fair, and this key number the most important half-point in football.
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NFL Week 7 Picks: Colts Vs. Dolphins Under 43.5
This game has a middling total, but I’m not really sure how we can trust either offense to move the ball.
The Colts are bringing Anthony Richardson back to start at QB. He returned to practice on Wednesday and looks ready to roll.
Unfortunately for them, EPA/play is telling us that Joe Flacco has outplayed him by a wide margin. Dropping the minimum plays to 60 in the publicly available database, we can see that Richardson ranks 35th out of 36 QBs this year in EPA+CPOE composite, ahead of only Bryce Young.
I haven’t been that impressed with Flacco, but he ranks fourth there. I completely agree with Indy’s decision to start Richardson, as the only way this franchise makes any long-term progress is if he develops or they can see for sure that he isn’t the guy. But right now, it’s hard to argue he improves this offense.
And Miami has been the worst or second-worst offense in the league sans Tua Tagovailoa. Tyler Huntley doesn’t have an NFL-level arm to take advantage of the deep speed brought to bear by his receiving corps. And the fact is, we just haven’t seen him produce outside of the Ravens’ elite ecosystem.
Even if Huntley does make a jump to competence, there’s a long way to go from where the Dolphins are at to scoring 20+ in a game. They’ve scored 25 total in three games without Tagovailoa, and the competition hasn’t been all that difficult (Seahawks, Titans, Patriots).
The only one of those games to approach this number was the 31-12 loss to Tennessee. That game had 32 points on the board late in the fourth between a safety-touchdown sequence in the final two minutes pushed it to 43.
Final Thoughts
My only real worry here is the bye week will enable the Dolphins to get Huntley up to speed on the offense. But, despite the flaws with Tagovailoa, the Dolphins haven’t shown the ability to generate any meaningful offense without him under Mike McDaniel. I don’t understand how any Dolphins game can have a total this high until we see better from this offense, so I’m going to take the under here.
Mo’s Full NFL Week 7 Betting Card
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