Mo’s NFL Picks & Best Bets For Week 1 Include AFC West Moneyline Underdog

Each week during the NFL season, I’ll assess NFL odds and write up my favorite wagers. I’ll take a look at odds for point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals throughout the season. These NFL picks are simply my favorites of the week, and I encourage readers to think critically and decide for themselves whether there’s any merit to the bets before adding to your bet slips, assigning big confidence pool points, or considering in NFL Survivor.

Let’s take a look at a couple of my favorite plays for NFL Week 1 odds. I like the Raiders’ chances on the “road” in L.A., and I’m thinking defenses might take over in the Titans at Bears game.

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NFL Week 1 Picks: Raiders +3 (-105)

I’m not very high on the Chargers coming into 2024. Jim Harbaugh should be a sizable upgrade at head coach, but this looks like a reset year where they work on building his culture. The roster has taken a decent-sized step back, most obviously at WR.

Especially in this matchup, the offense looks like it might be in a rough spot. Down the stretch last year, the Raiders defended the run at an elite level. They had the fourth-best EPA/play allowed on the ground in the second half. In fact, they only beefed up their front in the offseason. They added star DT Christian Wilkins from Miami.

Yet, Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman are well-known to favor a ground-heavy attack. And it’s hard to see what choice they have given the receiving options. More than 80% of the receiving volume has left the team. Joshua Palmer and Ladd McConkey are the top two options on paper. Either looks vastly miscast as a WR1.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers look vulnerable at all levels. I think this defense lands in the bottom half of the NFL. It still looks weak against the inside runs. And Kristian Fulton is penciled in as a starting CB. He was a pigeon in coverage for his entire career in Tennessee.

Gardner Minshew is lacking as a leading man, but he has elite skill players to throw to as long as Brock Bowers hits the ground running.

I also can’t give the Chargers an ounce of credit for home-field here. Raiders fans might outnumber home fans.

Final Thoughts

The Raiders have a dreadfully thin roster. I think we need to be ready to fade this team once injuries start to accumulate and these backups on defense start seeing some burn. For now, though, I see this as a plus matchup for them against a Chargers team that I expect to take some time to acclimate to Harbaugh’s coaching. I like the value on Raiders odds +3, and I’ll have some moneyline as well.

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NFL Week 1 Picks: Titans/Bears Under 44.5 (-110)

Everyone is excited for the Caleb Williams experience, with the possible exception of fellow NFC North fans. However, I could see this game being more of a low-scoring slog than a shootout.

The longer than preseason evaluation process has gone on, the more I’ve talked myself into this Bears defense. The back seven looks elite. Jaylon Johnson leads the group, but Tyrique Stevenson looked like he was starting to get it in the second half, Kyler Gordon’s a quality nickel, and former star Kevin Byard III looks like a nice pickup as a starting safety. You probably won’t find a better linebacking duo than T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds.

The pass rush looks weak outside of Montez Sweat, but if they can get pressure on anyone, it’s probably the Titans. Will Levis holds the ball too long, and the offensive line is being rebuilt. They should improve, but they’ll take some lumps early.

Tennessee has also put together a solid defense. The coverage unit looks above average thanks to the addition of premium CB L’Jarius Sneed. The pass rush should be solid, and Ernest Jones IV gives them a quality coverage LB. They brought him over in a trade with L.A. Rams.

And while Williams and this dynamite receiving group represent exciting possibilities, rookie QBs usually still take some time to acclimate to the NFL game.

Final Thoughts

This total looks a bit high for an outdoor game that involves two potentially high-quality defenses. As long as there aren’t too many turnovers resulting in short fields, I like Under 44.5.

Mo’s Full NFL Week 1 Betting Card

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