Mo’s NFL Picks & Best Bets For Week 6 Including Jets Vs. Bills Monday Night Football
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll assess NFL odds and write up my favorite wagers. I’ll take a look at odds for point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals throughout the season. These NFL picks are simply my favorites of the week, and I encourage readers to think critically and decide for themselves whether there’s any merit to the bets before adding to your bet slips, assigning big confidence pool points, or considering in NFL Survivor.
Let’s take a look at a couple of my favorite plays for NFL Week 6 odds.
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NFL Week 6 Picks: Jets +2.5 (-108)
Buffalo has crashed back to earth hard with the schedule stiffening. The Ravens flattened them, and the Texans did the same statistically despite blowing their lead and needing a late-game-winning field goal. Houston outgained Buffalo by 149 yards and 1.6 YPP despite losing Nico Collins to injury early.
I have serious questions about this Bills offense, especially if Khalil Shakir remains out and Josh Allen continues looking shaky (and definitely not concussed?).
They face a Jets defense that has defended Allen well on much better offenses in recent years. That unit completely strangled a Vikings offense that has been lighting up the league.
Meanwhile, a Bills defense that looked great early has been crushed by injuries and suspensions. A rejuvenated Von Miller is done for the time being, thanks to league sanctions stemming from a domestic violence case. Ed Oliver hurt his hamstring in Thursday’s practice, which doesn’t seem likely to resolve itself in a week. That pass rush was covering for a questionable coverage group that has its own injuries between S Taylor Rapp and CB Taron Johnson.
Of course, the Jets have their own internal strife to deal with after firing Robert Saleh. But, the defense should remain intact and solid with coordinator continuity here.
While Aaron Rodgers has looked concerningly overwhelmed the past couple of weeks, he should have more room to breathe here. The Bills ranked 32nd in blitz rate and 21st in pressure rate entering Week 5.
Final Thoughts
The Bills got off to a roaring start this year and had everyone ready to crown them. I wasn’t so sure, considering their early schedule (Jaguars, Cardinals, Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa for half of the game) turned out to be tremendously soft. I don’t have any of those teams in the top half of the league in my NFL power rankings.
The Jets have the better, healthier defense and probably the more effective passing game at the moment. And they’re getting points at home. I’m slightly concerned about a London hangover, but at least they get an extra day of recovery. And they should be focused for the biggest game of their season at home.
I’ll take Jets odds even south of the key number here at +2.5.
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NFL Week 6 Picks: Broncos +3
I hammered the Broncos last week for my only winner, and I’m back on board for NFL picks in Week 6.
What am I missing about this Chargers team that means they should be laying a field goal in one of the few remaining places that has actual home-field advantage? I see a bad, run-based offense against an elite defense (fourth in DVOA, third in EPA/play) that’s been rock-solid against the run.
If Justin Herbert is dropping back to pass, he’ll be under siege. The Broncos are really getting after the QB, and L.A. might be without both starting tackles again. They utterly failed to block a Chiefs pass rush that is on this same level. Herbert was pressured on an incredible 51.7% of his dropbacks that game, which simply isn’t sustainable.
Much like my handicap in Week 5, I’m wondering how on earth the opposition is going to move the ball on this Denver defense.
Bo Nix hasn’t been great, but he’s doing just enough to move the ball along with a Denver rushing attack that’s doing acceptable work (15th in EPA/play). Javonte Williams took command of the backfield again and had a solid showing last week (13 carries for 61 yards).
Final Thoughts
On paper, this game matches two strong defenses. But, I’m much more impressed with what the Broncos have done, considering they’ve actually played some passers with a pulse (Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith). The Chargers have faced Patrick Mahomes and not a whole lot else, and Mahomes got 7.1 YPA against them. I’m suspicious this defense might be a bit of a paper tiger, while I’m fully convinced the Broncos are legit.
The market has also begun overvaluing teams off a bye as discussed in this article on NFL rest advantages.
Keep an eye on the status of the Chargers tackles. If Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater can return, that would significantly boost the Chargers’ chances, but I’m skeptical. Sign me up for Broncos odds as I can’t see this one going past +3.
Mo’s Full NFL Week 6 Betting Card
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