Mo’s NFL Picks & Best Bets For Week 4 Include Thursday Night Football

Each week during the NFL season, I’ll assess NFL odds and write up my favorite wagers. I’ll take a look at odds for point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals throughout the season. These NFL picks are simply my favorites of the week, and I encourage readers to think critically and decide for themselves whether there’s any merit to the bets before adding to your bet slips, assigning big confidence pool points, or considering in NFL Survivor.

Let’s take a look at a couple of my favorite plays for NFL Week 4 odds. I’m backing the Giants for the second straight week, and I’m also looking to fade an Eagles team that might have hit a critical mass of injuries on the offensive end.

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NFL Week 4 Picks: Giants +6 (-112)

The Giants came through for me big time in Week 3, and I’m back on the train for Thursday Night Football odds in Week 4.

Dallas might just be a mediocre football team, folks. In a preseason column explaining my rationale for betting under on their win total, I warned that this team’s talent level has eroded. Sure enough, they are off to a pretty rough start, with one win against a terrible Cleveland offense and two emphatic losses.

The fascinating thing about this game is that the Giants represent a pretty favorable matchup for Dallas. The one-dimensional Cowboys offense (Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb) should find some daylight here, considering the Giants have a poor secondary that’s now also dealing with multiple injuries. And Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence can cover up a lot of sins elsewhere by simply whooping the guys in front of them. The Giants don’t have a good offensive line.

Despite all that, I still think this line is too high.

Between a decent running game and quick throws to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson, the Giants showed they could hold off a premier pass-rushing threat last week when they didn’t let Myles Garrett wreck their day. Daniel Jones is gaining confidence in Nabers by the week. Rightfully so, considering he looks like a future superstar.

And just like last year, Dallas can’t stop the run. They’re 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in Success Rate allowed despite only facing one offensive line that projected in the league’s top 10 (Cleveland).

Final Thoughts

Last week, I said I didn’t trust a horrific Cleveland offense to run away from anyone. Dallas isn’t that sort of team, but I feel similarly in the sense that the only path I see to repeatable success is throwing to CeeDee Lamb. Maybe he just goes for 200 yards to bury the Giants, but I’m going to pay to see it. New York should also be highly motivated here on national TV against a team that has repeatedly drubbed them in recent years. I think we get a good effort from them and they can cover +6.

Stephen Andress and Matt Brown agree the Cowboys are highly suspect. They explained their thinking on our Thursday Night football podcast:

NFL Week 4 Picks: Buccaneers +2

I am baffled by this line, as the Philadelphia Eagles as we know them might not resemble the team that takes the field this week.

Star performers RT Lane Johnson and WR DeVonta Smith seem very unlikely to play. They both sustained hits that left them in concussion protocol, and it’s extremely difficult to clear that inside of a week.

If A.J. Brown were healthy, the loss of Smith might be tolerable, but he isn’t. He suggested he would need a few weeks off after hurting his hamstring. He missed Wednesday’s practice, and it’s probably a flip whether he can go.

All of that potentially leaves Dallas Goedert as the option No. 1 in the passing game. That’s not a great situation. Commendable as his 170-yard effort against the Saints was, it seems like a tough trick to repeat. Jalen Hurts isn’t a QB I can remotely trust when he doesn’t have a pristine ecosystem around him.

I’m also skeptical of this Philadelphia pass rush on the other side of the ball. The defense is off to a slow start, which isn’t a major surprise considering they’re installing a new system and they have a lot of youth in the secondary. I’m concerned they won’t be able to effectively slow down Tampa’s passing attack.

That unit got overwhelmed by opposing pass rushes in the prior two weeks, but Philly is 27th in pressure rate and 29th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Baker Mayfield is a QB who frequently cracks under pressure but is capable of delivering the ball on target and with velocity if given clean pockets.

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Final Thoughts

A tried and true NFL betting strategy is to plug your nose and bet on the team that performed the worst the prior week. This one probably checks that box as the Bucs not only lost as big home favorites to a Denver team that could barely score a point, but they got obliterated. I’m going to buy back in and hope they can protect Mayfield and exploit this beatable coverage unit. Most importantly, I am skeptical of Philly’s offense, which is going to revolve around the running back and tight end.

Wrong team favored for me, so I’m on Bucs odds +2.

Mo’s Full NFL Week 4 Betting Card

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