Mo’s NFL Picks & Week 9 Best Bets: Can Jags Exploit Eagles Defense?
I’ll assess NFL odds each week during the NFL season and write up my favorite wagers. I’ll look at odds for point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals throughout the season. These NFL picks are simply my favorites of the week. I encourage readers to think critically and decide whether there’s any merit to the bets before adding to their bet slips, assigning big confidence pool points, or considering NFL Survivor.
Look at some of my favorite plays for NFL Week 9 odds. The Jaguars hit the road after a heartbreaking loss in Green Bay, and I think they can exploit Philadelphia’s weak pass secondary. And the Falcons get a home game against a beatable Cowboys defense.
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NFL Week 9 Picks: Jaguars +7.5 At Eagles
The Jaguars looked like they would be in a rough spot this week, but we got some good news with Brian Thomas Jr. logging a pair of limited practices to start the week. They’ll need him because the only route to covering this game likely comes through the air.
The Eagles have a very exploitable secondary. That will be especially true this week with Darius Slay trending out, pushing unproven young players into the starting lineup.
Jacksonville has finally shown signs of life with its passing offense over the past few weeks. With Evan Engram back and Thomas playing, I think there’s still enough weaponry here.
The biggest key for me here is stopping the Philadelphia rushing attack. Jacksonville has a terrible pass defense, but it has enough muscle up front (top 11 in rush defense DVOA and EPA/play) to make Jalen Hurts pass. As long as he’s occasionally under pressure, the Jags should be able to get a few stops.
Final Thoughts
With a passing offense that has a pulse against a beatable secondary, I can’t get the Eagles to be a two-score favorite here. I will sell them off the big win over Cincy and take Jaguars odds of +7.5.
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NFL Week 9 Picks: Falcons -3 (-105) Vs. Cowboys
Aside from the Week 7 speed bump against the Seahawks, Atlanta’s offense continues to roll. I don’t think it’ll have much trouble moving the ball or staying balanced against a Cowboys defense that continues to get trucked every week.
This game features two offenses capable of scoring a lot of points, hence the high total. However, I have much more confidence in the Falcons’ defense getting the occasional stop due to how one-dimensional the Cowboys are.
As I predicted before the season, this group has essentially been “Dak to CeeDee Lamb or bust.” Lamb went bananas last week against the 49ers playing from behind, but I think that fake comeback obscured another game where Dallas couldn’t move the ball much during the competitive portions.
It doesn’t look like Micah Parsons will be back this week, so Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility shouldn’t be a major issue.
Dallas is 32nd in rush defense EPA and 31st in Adjusted Line Yards. The Falcons should crush them up front and put Prescott in must-pass situations, and I think these Falcons safeties can force a turnover or two when that happens.
Final Thoughts
I’m surprised the Falcons aren’t laying more than a field goal at home here. I’m even happier to take Falcons odds at reduced vig (-105).
Mo’s Full NFL Week 9 Betting Card
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