Mo’s NFL Picks & Week 8 Best Bets: Can Texans, Dolphins’ Passing Offenses Thrive?
I’ll assess NFL odds each week during the NFL season and write up my favorite wagers. I’ll look at odds for point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals throughout the season. These NFL picks are simply my favorites of the week. I encourage readers to think critically and decide whether there’s any merit to the bets before adding to their bet slips, assigning big confidence pool points, or considering NFL Survivor.
Look at some of my favorite plays for NFL Week 8 odds. This week, my theme is passing offenses that I believe are being underrated by the market. The Dolphins and Texans are in spots where their QBs can thrive.
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NFL Week 8 Picks: Dolphins -3.5 Vs. Cardinals
All indications are that Tua Tagovailoa will retake the reins of the Dolphins offense. And boy, nothing could be more necessary.
A once high-flying offense that shredded the league the past couple of regular seasons is down bad — really bad. It’s 31st in offense DVOA and dead last in EPA/play bad.
The market doesn’t quite remember how good this unit can be with Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have been so bad that it’s easy to forget that these same personnel were clowning bad defenses the past few years, and the Cardinals most certainly qualify on that front. They’re 30th in pass defense EPA/play and 29th in DVOA.
The unit lost pass rusher Dennis Gardeck for the season, so it’s in an even worse position.
Arizona’s offense has been fairly solid, but I don’t see them keeping up here. Plunging with James Conner and throwing to Trey McBride is like bringing a knife to a gunfight when the other team hits seam balls to two elite wideouts.
Final Thoughts
Both times the market has gotten high on Arizona, they’ve immediately crapped the bed the following week. This team doesn’t seem to have the consistency needed to excel week after week. I’m happy to sell them coming off a win where they were outgained and allowed 8 YPA passing to a mediocre Chargers offense. My fair number here is -6, so give me the Dolphins’ odds.
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NFL Week 8 Picks: Texans -5 Vs. Colts
In Week 1, the Texans’ odds closed -3 on the road at Indianapolis. That indicates the market thinks they should have been -7 at least at home, yet now they’re -5.
I don’t understand this one bit. What have the Colts done to convince us they’re better than they were projected in the preseason? They were outgained at home by a dreadful Dolphins team last week, surviving based almost entirely on a pair of turnovers.
Now, they’re facing a Texans team that is slightly worse than expected. Granted, Nico Collins is out, but there are still weapons here, especially with Joe Mixon single-handedly making the running game functional.
The Houston offensive line has failed C.J. Stroud at critical times, but this should be a game where he gets acceptable protection. The Colts will do the same thing Gus Bradley always does: sit back in their three-deep zone and keep things in front of them. Stroud should be able to pick them apart. His footwork can get a little wonky under pressure, but he won’t see much of that against the team 31st in blitz rate.
I touched on this last week, but it bears repeating after another poor performance: at this juncture, Anthony Richardson doesn’t seem capable of operating a functional NFL passing attack. I don’t think this team can play from behind on the road, particularly with WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs banged up.
Final Thoughts
I will take the discount on Houston relative to Week 1 odds, as I think the Colts are being vastly overvalued. I had them in Week 1 and felt like I was quite lucky to get that one home. Even a reduced Houston offense should have its way again here, and the Colts might be the last team in the league I want to back playing from a deficit.
Mo’s Full NFL Week 8 Betting Card
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