Detroit Lions Odds, Win Total & Futures: Another 12-Win Season In Detroit?

With NFL Week 1 odds already available, along with a full catalog of futures at every sportsbook, TheLines.com will be posting a series of bets our staff has made on various NFL odds. Lions futures will undoubtedly generate a ton of love. Dan Campbell led the moribund franchise to the brink of a Super Bowl appearance before a second-half collapse did them in. Many bettors will expect the young roster to take the next step and solidify as an inner-circle contender.

TheLines.com’s managing editor, Stephen Andress, likes their chances in the regular season to keep racking up wins. Atop NFC North odds for the second straight year, can the Lions repeat their 12-win season and hold off the Packers? Let’s take a look at their roster and schedule to help evaluate NFL odds for the Lions.

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NFL Odds: Detroit Lions Futures

Bull Case For Lions Futures

Offensive Line

Everything starts up front, and the Lions have arguably the best line in the business, creating holes for the running game and pockets for the passing game. Both PFF and Warren Sharp rated the unit the league’s best entering 2024. Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell might be the best tackle tandem in the game, and Frank Ragnow is arguably the league’s top center.

The only moving piece here is at guard, where Jonah Jackson departs in favor of Kevin Zeitler. That may represent an upgrade, as Zeitler has a solid history of performance for multiple teams.

Offensive Weapons

Playmakers are at least above average, possibly excellent, depending on whether Jameson Williams takes a step forward. He’s shown flashes, and Campbell has gassed up his camp performance big time. If he becomes a true WR2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta, the Lions have a scary collection here.

Few doubts exist about the rushing attack, with two capable backs (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery) behind a powerful run-blocking line.

Offensive Continuity

Somehow, against all odds, the Lions also brought back both coordinators. Both OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn took multiple interviews in the offseason before ultimately returning. That sort of continuity is hard to quantify. But, given the success both authored last season, it’s hard to expect anything less than more of it with a similar roster.

Pass Rush

On defense, the pass rush should be borderline elite. Aidan Hutchinson is among the premier rushers in the league. DJ Reader is well above average, and Alim McNeill brought star-level production last year. Glenn also manufactured pressure at a high rate with his blitz packages.

Schedule A Mixed Bag

We haven’t touched on the quarterback yet. One could argue there are two versions of Jared Goff: outdoor Goff and indoor Goff.

For his career, Goff’s passer rating drops by 10 points and his completion percentage by 5% when playing indoors vs. outdoors. The turnovers have been the main drag, though. Goff has nearly a 1-to-1 ratio of TDs to TOs, with his INT rate bloating by 38%.

Thankfully for Detroit, the schedule shakes out with very little potential bad weather. They play outside just three times: Week 9 at Green Bay, Week 16 at Chicago, and Week 17 at San Francisco. Of those, only Chicago figures to really be in the elements. In early November, Green Bay may not have settled into winter weather just yet.

On the other hand, Detroit’s success last season means they’ve drawn a first-place schedule for 2024. That means games against Dallas and Buffalo that their division-mates won’t face.

Overall, the Lions face only one game (at San Francisco) where they’re greater than +3 underdogs.

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Bear Case For Lions FUtures

Can Lions Find Help In Defensive Backfield?

Will Detroit be able to cover anyone?

The secondary was a major liability in 2023. PFF rated the unit’s play 29th, which jives with EPA/play data that ranked Detroit’s pass defense 25th. If the pass didn’t get home, the secondary consistently got torched.

Weakness in the secondary translates to fragility in holding leads, a fact laid all-too-bare by the 49ers storming back from 17 down in the NFC Championship.

The safety play between Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, and Ifeatu Melifonwu should be acceptable. However, cornerback remains a concern.

Certainly, Detroit took steps to address the position. They used high draft picks on Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and brought in Carlton Davis via trade from Tampa Bay. Davis is a solid veteran, but even talented rookie corners usually get their tails kicked while they adjust to the NFL game.

The linebacking corps leans more into run support skills as well, but the Lions will hope second-year man Jack Campbell continues to develop.

Is Goff Reliable Year To Year?

And despite Goff’s strong play, one can’t help but wonder whether he can repeat last year’s excellent play. On talent alone, he isn’t one of the top signal-callers in the league. History tells us he’s highly dependent on having pristine surroundings.

If injuries start to hit his supporting cast, his play figures to drop off more than that of most QBs.

NFL Odds: Lions Over 11.5 Wins (+180)

TheLines.com’s managing editor, Stephen Andress, did not find NFL odds for the Lions’ normal win total of Over 10.5 (-132) appealing enough. He went even further with an alternate win total.

A roster brimming with overall talent and a top coaching staff give Detroit a very high floor. It’s hard to imagine a situation where the bottom falls out here, but it’s easy to imagine one where the Lions contend for the NFC’s top seed.

In the secondary, they need Davis to bring dependable performance and for one of the rookie corners to pop. If that happens, this is one of the most complete teams in the league.

With a favorable schedule for the offense and a team that the market has underrated consistently (12-5 ATS each of the past two years), Stephen sees sunny days ahead for betting the Lions in 2024 NFL odds, at least for regular season success. He’s looking to cash in with an alternate win total over at bet365: