New England Patriots Odds: How Much Will Mac Jones Improve In 2023?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on August 9, 2023

As the NFL regular season inches closer, AFC East odds remain one of the most intriguing divisions to handicap. But no matter how you spin it, the Patriots’ odds are at the bottom. They’re to finish in front of Buffalo, New York and Miami — all of which have improved. So how should bettors gauge Bill Belichick & Co. for NFL Week 1 odds and beyond? Let’s dig in.

Click on any of the Patriots odds below to place a wager from the best sports betting sites.

Patriots’ New Offensive Coordinator

After Mac Jones helped lead New England to a wild-card berth as a rookie, his sophomore results weren’t so pretty. The Alabama product finished with the sixth-worst dropback EPA among qualified quarterbacks. The offense was also unorganized pre-snap, leading the NFL in delay of game penalties.

Those areas could theoretically refine themselves. Ex-Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has replaced Matt Patricia as the offensive coordinator while rejoining the staff in the process. Keep in mind, Patricia hadn’t focused on that side of the ball since 2006.

That said, the Pats will arguably face the league’s most difficult path. Not only do each of their division opponents possess top-10 Super Bowl odds, but they’ll square off against the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys and Chargers as well.

Counting O’Brien and an unproven Jones to keep pace with their explosive counterparts is a tough sell — even if New England’s defense remains semi-reliable. Unless JuJu Smith-Schuster turns back the clock, this offense lacks an upper-echelon receiver. Rhamondre Stevenson’s / rushing yards prop is somewhat appealing to the over, yet that’s also asking the Patriots to avoid their fair share of double-digit deficits.

Related: Might Betting On Lamar Jackson, Todd Monken Pay Off?

Will the Defense stumble?

Belichick’s unit surrendered the third-fewest EPA allowed in 2022, yet it comes with a grain of salt. All but one mobile QB (usually an Achilles heel for Belichick) and above-average QBs found success, securing an EPA better than their season average against the Patriots. For context, here’s the list of QBs New England beat last year:

Mitch Trubisky
Jacoby Brissett
Zach Wilson (twice)
Sam Ehlinger
Colt McCoy
Teddy Bridgewater

Although Trey Flowers returning to Foxborough on Tuesday likely doesn’t move the needle, the addition of first-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez will undoubtedly pay dividends.

The unknown variable revolves around whether Belichick can finally adjust versus speedy signal callers. The Patriots’ schedule includes a handful of them, including Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and even Daniel Jones.

Conclusion on Patriots odds

My colleague Stephen Andress wisely bet New England to finish with seven or fewer victories. Better yet, his NFL win totals wager was priced at plus money. The market doesn’t reflect that number anymore, though, as it’s currently positioned at /.

With that in mind, DraftKings Sportsbook has Patriots odds, regarding a fourth-place finish in the AFC East, set at -120. That’s certainly worth considering.

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